Heat Wave: Climate or Weather?

  

                                   

 

Yesterday, July 19, I turned 84. In all my years I do not recall a July that has not been hot. Heat in July is a natural weather phenomenon that occurs every year. However, headlines are making dire claims about global warming and quoting politicians calling for emergency action. It is totally unreasonable and unscientific to confuse or equate weather and climate.

Changes in weather occur routinely every year and range from summertime heat to below zero in winter. It is perfectly normal for temperatures to climb into the 90s during the summer. It is not a sign of global warming. It takes centuries to really notice changes in climate.

Since the mid-nineteenth century, temperatures have been tracked in New York City’s Central Park. Here, for example, is a list of the highest temperatures recorded at the start of each decade since the beginning of the last century

2021—98 degrees

2011—104 degrees 

2001—103 degrees

1991—102 degrees

1981—96 degrees

1971—96 degrees

1961—97 degrees

1951—94 degrees

1941—98 degrees

1931—99 degrees

1921—96 degrees

1911—100 degrees

1901—100 degrees.

 

The highest temperature recorded was on July 9, 1936. The thermometer hit 106 degrees that day. I know that the figures above are just a statistical snapshot, but they do illustrate that it is supposed to be hot in July and August. Looking at the figures, the only real difference over the past 100 years is that we have done something about the weather. Air-conditioning, one of the greatest inventions of the twentieth century, has revolutionized life in this country.

Our homes, offices, factories, shopping centers, theaters, arenas, and churches are  comfortably air-conditioned.  Actually, without air-conditioning our modern way of life would be unthinkable. We owe it all to fossil fuels which have provided the electricity that powers every air-conditioning unit. I am old enough to know what it was like to live without air-conditioning and it was not nice. I still think of my poor mother who gave birth to me in July. 

 

Anyway, weather is not climate. As noted above, weather goes through normal annual cycles, but climate cycles can take centuries to detect. Recently, studies have claimed  that the global temperature has increased by 1.1 degree Celsius since the nineteenth century, and that the increase is due to human activity in the industrial age. I can imagine that today scientists using modern technology can measure global temperatures, but I do not understand how they can come up with figures from over 100 years ago. 

 

Moreover, modern climate studies admit that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to factor in the effect of volcanic or solar activity in calculations of global temperature. Some believe that solar activity like sunspots are a significant factor in climate change. After all, the sun is our furnace. 

 

But let’s assume that the studies are correct, and that global temperature has increased by 1.1 degree Celsius since the nineteenth century. Rather than disaster, it has coincided with the greatest period of human development and prosperity in history. Although headlines carry stories of heat related deaths during the current heat wave, deaths from heat have decreased dramatically over the past century. Deaths related to cold are five times greater. Starvation and malnutrition as a cause of death has also reached all-time lows in the past century even considering the well-known man-made starvation efforts in Communist dominated countries. 

So even if the global climate is changing it might not be such a bad thing.  Our planet has been around for over 13 billion years. It has gone through every imaginable catastrophe during that time. It revolves around a large star 93 million miles away which is itself located on the periphery of a huge galaxy which is moving rapidly through the universe. During my lifetime, this planet has probably carried me millions of miles away from where it was in 1939. 

Human beings  have been around less than 50000 years on this planet. We certainly have the ability to make our lives better or worse but to think we can save Planet Earth seems to me the height of arrogance. In 1933 composer Irving Berlin wrote the song “Heat Wave.” In 1958 composer Cole Porter wrote “Too Darn Hot” for his hit musical “Kiss Me Kate.” Both songs referred to wickedly hot weather like we are experiencing today. Since these songs were written, human ingenuity used air conditioning to do something about the weather. But I suspect that our efforts to deal with climate change will do little good and potentially much harm to life on our planet.

###

Carbon Dioxide Explosion

Last week much of the Eastern coast of the United States was shrouded in an orange haze caused by forest fires in Canada. A very unusual sequence of weather events caused the smoke from these fires to fill the atmosphere and drift south. The cause of these fires is debatable, but there is no denying their effects. The fires have spewed an enormous amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, an amount the makes the efforts of humans to limit carbon dioxide emissions seem insignificant.

Things were uncomfortable here for a few days but eventually the sky cleared. Mother Nature cleaned things up with the help of trees and plants that have a voracious appetite for carbon dioxide. Actually, here in Connecticut we may see a banner year for crops and gardens due to the abundance of carbon dioxide from these fires. 

This latest event just confirmed my belief that Nature has more to do with Climate and weather than humans who make up just a small part of the natural world. M.J. Sangster made this point in The Real Inconvenient Truth,  a 2018 book on all the factors that make up the Earth’s climate.

Sangster did not deny that the Earth might be in a warming phase, or that the CO2 level in the atmosphere has been increasing over the last 100 years, but in his well-researched book, he demonstrated that human-caused CO2, is a tiny fraction of the CO2 produced by nature, and that it makes up an  even tinier fraction of Greenhouse gases (GHG) which are 95% water vapor. In other words, human caused CO2, is little more than a drop in the vast ocean that is our atmosphere. Despite the claims of Climate Change Alarmists, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), human-caused or natural, is not poisoning the planet. Here are some facts from Sangster’s book.

 

“Carbon dioxide  (CO2) is not a toxic gas; it plays a vital role in plant and animal processes, including photosynthesis [CO2+sunlight+Water produces Plant food (carbohydrates) + Oxygen]. Obviously, we need the oxygen, and plants need the carbohydrates.” … [199]

“That CO2 is directly correlated with temperature is not the issue however, the issue is whether or not the relationship is the dominate climate driver in the presence of other natural events and feedbacks, and clearly it is not or, as CO2 increases linearly, so too would temperature… It is just one climate forcing event in a complex Earth system… “[198]

 

The major factors in the complex Earth climate system are the Sun, Tectonics, Wind and Ocean Circulation, Oceanic Oscillations, Clouds and Aerosols, and Greenhouse Gases. Sangster devoted a chapter to each of these factors and they are must reads for anyone really interested in following the science. Actually, his book is a fascinating introduction to Earth science. Did you know, for example:

That the Sun revolves in a relatively circular orbit around the nucleus of our galaxy at a speed of over 500,000 miles per hour. It takes 11 Earth years to complete its immense orbit, and drags us along with it although we don’t feel a thing. On route, we pass through fields of cosmic rays that bombard us. Our atmosphere protects us, but these cosmic rays still effect our climate. 

That the plate tectonics that formed our continents is still going on and generating vast amounts of energy. They also create mountain ranges. Did you know that 85% of the Earth’s volcanos are below the surface of the oceans?

That wind and Ocean circulation is a major factor in our climate. Without the warm waters of the tropical Gulf Stream, Northern Europe would be uninhabitable.

That clouds play a key role in regulating our climate. Some let in needed heat from the Sun, while others reflect it back into space. As noted above, water vapor makes up 95% of the greenhouse gas that keeps heat in, and that prevents the entire planet from looking like Antarctica. Sangster quotes former President Obama’s Science Czar, Dr, John Holdren: “a 1% increase in cloud cover would decrease the surface temperature by .8 degree C., the entire warming amount attributed to CO2 since the start of the Industrial Age.” [196]

That water vapor makes up 99% of the greenhouse gases that help regulate our climate, and that it is entirely natural. There is nothing we can do about this fact, or any of the other facts noted above. 

Finally, Sangster points out a basic truth: “Earth is the only planet in the solar system with an atmosphere that can sustain life. The blanket of atmospheric gases not only contains the air we breathe but also modulates the energy balance… “[197].

I have limited this post to Climate Science. The rest of “The Real Inconvenient Truth” deals with the politics of Climate Science. We will deal with that in subsequent posts, but for now I will just say that it appears to me that it is the height of hubris to think that humans can combat the vast and powerful natural forces that have shaped our Earth on its incredible journey through space and time. 

###              

Climate Science

  

    

I have been a Climate Change skeptic but now, after reading M.J. Sangster’s, The Real Inconvenient Truth,  a 2018 book on all the factors that make up the Earth’s climate, I now accept the opprobrious label of Climate Change Denier (CCD). It is not that I deny that the Earth might be in a warming phase, or that the CO2 level in the atmosphere has been increasing over the last 100 years. 

But in Sangster’s extremely well-researched book, he demonstrates that human-caused CO2, is a tiny fraction of the CO2 produced by nature, and that it makes up an  even tinier fraction of Greenhouse gases (GHG) which are 95% water vapor. In other words, human caused CO2, is little more than a drop in the vast ocean that is our atmosphere. Despite the claims of Climate Change Alarmists (CCA), Carbon Dioxide (CO2), human-caused or natural, is not poisoning the planet. Here are some facts from Sangster’s book.

 

“Carbon dioxide  (CO2) is not a toxic gas; it plays a vital role in plant and animal processes, including photosynthesis [CO2+sunlight+Water produces Plant food (carbohydrates) + Oxygen). Obviously, we need the oxygen, and plants need the carbohydrates.” … [199]

“That CO2 is directly correlated with temperature is not the issue however, the issue is whether or not the relationship is the dominate climate driver in the presence of other natural events and feedbacks, and clearly it is not or, as CO2 increases linearly, so too would temperature… It is just one climate forcing event in a complex Earth system… “[198]

 

The major factors in the complex Earth climate system are the Sun, Tectonics, Wind and Ocean Circulation, Oceanic Oscillations, Clouds and Aerosols, and Greenhouse Gases.  Sangster devotes a chapter to each of these factors and they are must reads for anyone really interested in following the science. Actually, his book is a fascinating introduction to Earth science. Did you know, for example:

That the Sun revolves in a relatively circular orbit around the nucleus of our galaxy at a speed of over 500,000 miles per hour. It takes 11 Earth years to complete its immense orbit, and drags us along with it although we don’t feel a thing. On route, we pass through fields of cosmic rays that bombard us. Our atmosphere protects us, but these cosmic rays still effect our climate. 

That the plate tectonics that formed our continents is still going on and generating vast amounts of energy. They also create mountain ranges. Did you know that 85% of the Earth’s volcanos are below the surface of the oceans?

That wind and Ocean circulation is a major factor in our climate. Without the warm waters of the tropical Gulf Stream, Northern Europe would be uninhabitable.

That clouds play a key role in regulating our climate. Some let in needed heat from the Sun, while others reflect it back into space. As noted above, water vapor makes up 95% of the greenhouse gas that keeps heat in, and that prevents the entire planet from looking like Antarctica. Sangster quotes former President Obama’s Science Czar, Dr, John Holdren: “a 1% increase in cloud cover would decrease the surface temperature by .8 degree C., the entire warming amount attributed to CO2 since the start of the Industrial Age.” [196]

That water vapor makes up 99% of the greenhouse gases that help regulate our climate, and that it is entirely natural. There is nothing we can do about it this fact, or any of the other facts noted above. 

Finally, Sangster points out a basic truth: “Earth is the only planet in the solar system with an atmosphere that can sustain life. The blanket of atmospheric gases not only contains the air we breathe but also modulates the energy balance… “[197].

I have limited this post to Climate Science. The rest of “The Real Inconvenient Truth” deals with the politics of Climate Science. We will deal with that in subsequent posts, but for now I will just say that it appears to me that it is the height of hubris to think that humans can combat the vast and powerful natural forces that have shaped our Earth on its incredible journey through space and time. 

###              

Too Darn Hot

 

                                     

 

The country is in the midst of a heat wave, and inevitably headlines are making dire claims about global warming and quoting politicians calling for emergency action. It is totally unreasonable and unscientific to confuse or equate weather and climate. Changes in weather occur routinely every year and range from summertime heat to freezing in winter. It is perfectly normal for temperatures to climb into the 90s during the summer. It is not a sign of global warming. It takes centuries to really notice changes in climate.

Since the mid-nineteenth century, temperatures have been tracked in New York City’s Central Park. Here, for example, is a list of the highest temperatures recorded at the start of each decade since the beginning of the last century

2021—98 degrees

2011—104 degrees 

2001—103 degrees

1991—102 degrees

1981—96 degrees

1971—96 degrees

1961—97 degrees

1951—94 degrees

1941—98 degrees

1931—99 degrees

1921—96 degrees

1911—100 degrees

1901—100 degrees.

The highest temperature recorded was on July 9, 1936. The thermometer hit 106 degrees that day. I know that the figures above are just a statistical snapshot, but they do illustrate that it is supposed to be hot in July and August. Looking at the figures, the only real difference over the past 100 years is that we have done something about the weather. Air-conditioning, one of the greatest inventions of the twentieth century, has revolutionized life in this country.

Our homes, offices, factories, shopping centers, theaters, arenas, and churches are  comfortably air-conditioned.  Actually, without air-conditioning our modern way of life would be unthinkable. We owe it all to fossil fuels which have provided the electricity that powers every air-conditioning unit. I am old enough to know what it was like to live without air-conditioning and it was not nice. I still think of my poor mother who gave birth to me in July. 

Anyway, weather is not climate. As noted above, weather goes through normal annual cycles, but climate cycles can take centuries to detect. Recently, studies have claimed  that the global temperature has increased by 1.1 degree Celsius since the nineteenth century, and that the increase is due to human activity in the industrial age. I can imagine that today scientists using modern technology can measure global temperatures, but I do not understand how they can come up with global figures from over 100 years ago. 

Moreover, modern climate studies admit that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to factor in the effect of volcanic or solar activity in calculations of global temperature. Some believe that solar activity like sunspots is a significant factor in climate change. After all, the sun is our furnace. 

But let’s assume that the studies are correct, and that global temperature has increased by 1.1 degree Celsius since the nineteenth century. Rather than disaster, it has coincided with the greatest period of human development and prosperity in history. Although headlines carry stories of heat related deaths during the current heat wave, deaths from heat have decreased dramatically over the past century. Deaths related to cold are five times greater. Starvation and malnutrition as a cause of death has also reached all-time lows in the past century even considering the well-known man-made starvation efforts in Communist dominated countries. 

So even if the global climate is changing it might not be such a bad thing.  Our planet has been around for over 4 billion years. It has gone through every imaginable catastrophe during that time. It revolves around a large star 93 million miles away which is itself located on the periphery of a huge galaxy which is moving rapidly through the universe. During my lifetime, this planet has probably carried me millions of miles away from where it was in 1939. 

Human beings  have been around less than 50000 years on this planet. We certainly have the ability to make our lives better or worse but to think we can save Planet Earth seems to me the height of arrogance. In 1933 composer Irving Berlin wrote the song “Heat Wave.” In 1958 composer Cole Porter wrote “Too Darn Hot” for his hit musical “Kiss Me Kate.” Both songs referred to wickedly hot weather like we are experiencing today. Since these songs were written, human ingenuity used air conditioning to do something about the weather. But I suspect that our efforts to deal with climate change will do little good and potentially much harm to life on our planet.

### 

Nature's Vaccine

Did you know that there could be a trillion coronaviruses in one saliva droplet? That’s 1,000,000,000,000 viruses in just one droplet. Not only does the number of these infinitesimally tiny viruses boggle the imagination, but also, they are continually reproducing and mutating. 

 

Considering the size of the microscopic virus, its journey across six feet from one human being to another is equivalent to a human space flight not just to the edge of the solar system, or even the edge of our galaxy, but to the very extremity of the universe. Moreover, the journey is filled with many dangers such as the ultraviolet rays of the sun.

 

The journey is so long and so dangerous that it requires human assistance. We enable the virus by constantly touching our noses and mouths and introducing the invading army into our bodies. Masks could help in this regard but since most of us use them improperly, they have obviously not stopped the virus.

 

Thank goodness we have an immune system that immediately springs into action when it detects the invading horde. Our mouths and nasal passages are full of warrior cells and bacteria without whose protection we would have long ago become extinct. 

 

When the coronavirus enters our system, the battle begins. Like any war it can cause great damage while it is waging. What we call symptoms--sniffles, coughing, fever, and fatigue-- are the results of the battle. We know by now that 99% of the time our immune system wins the battle. *

 

We also know that most of those who have died have been elderly. Some have suggested that our immune systems get weaker with age, but others have suggested that they get stronger after a lifetime of fighting various diseases, and that they produce an overly aggressive response to the invader that leads to inflammation, pneumonia, and death.

 

Last year I read an article that claimed that our immune system does not get weaker or stronger with age, but a factor that mitigates or controls the immune reaction does get weaker with age. It’s as if to prevent a Russian threat to the Ukraine, we launch a preventative nuclear strike.

 

Some scientists have argued that controlling the inflammatory response of our immune system against the virus is the way to handle the pandemic. Vaccines do not prevent us from getting infected but are designed as a kind of early warning system for the immune system, and thus prevent a deadly overreaction. **

 

In the opinion of my scientific advisor, a master biologist, the Omicron variant might be a blessing in disguise with the potential to be much more effective than any vaccine or booster. He had this to say in a recent email exchange in which he calls it "Nature's Vaccine."

 

The vaccines are RNA based which cause us to produce a protein (Spike Protein) which the Covid virus uses to attach to our cells.  However, a slight change in the spike protein due to a virus mutation could render the vaccine useless as we are seeing with Omicron.  I call Omicron "nature's vaccine" because our immune system will mount a response not only to the spike protein but to other vulnerable parts of the virus. This should produce long lasting immunity not only to Omicron but to similar Covid viruses.  So far, baring comorbidities, the Omicron seems to be mild, in fact, probably even milder than the booster vaccine!  It is more contagious and therefore probably will lead to herd immunity.  I do not buy the idea that the reason Omicron is milder is due to the fact that people have been vaccinated. To me, it is milder as the virus is going through evolution where it wants to remain "alive" and the best way to do that is not to kill its host.

Viruses have been manipulating human as well as all of the other organisms' DNA since life began on this planet. This manipulation has fostered the evolution of life on the  planet. Who knows? Covid-19 survivors and their offspring may now possess protection against an even more potentially lethal, future virus. Also, humans have over 140,000 different varieties of viruses living in our digestive system whose main purpose is to control the bacterial population of our digestive system which in turn is vital for well-being. We could not possibly survive or evolve without viruses.

 

###

 

*Note: As of January 1, 2022, there were over 55,000,000 reported case in the USA, and 847,041 deaths from Covid. Dividing deaths by cases leads to a survival rate of over 98%. However, most authorities agree that many cases have not been reported. Even though some estimates have been higher, if we just multiply the number of cases by 2, the survival rate is over 99%.

 

** Note: See the call for “focused protection” in the Great Barrington Declaration by a team of scientists and medical professionals that has drawn support from all over the world. Focused protection means concentrating on treating those most at risk, and not trying to keep the young and healthy from merely getting sick with symptoms that are rarely more serious than flu or the common cold. 

Coronavirus Treatment

                                                

Back in March on the advice of my science advisor, I put up a post on coronavirus antidotes that included a reference to doctors that had been using a combination of the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine and the Z-pac to successfully treat patients with severe symptoms of coronavirus infection.

At the time the treatment, despite its success, was controversial. Although hydroxychloroquine had been used successfully for many years in treating malaria and lupus, it had not been tested for coronavirus. The now famous Dr. Fauci explained that the CDC could not support the use of the drug until it had been fully tested. Moreover, the drug could have serious side effects for those with heart and other conditions.

The drug became even more controversial when President Trump at a press conference alluded to the success that doctors in the field were having with the hydroxychloroquine treatment. Commentators were up in arms. The President’s support meant that the drug entered the political arena.

However, a study has just been published by the respected Henry Ford Health center in Detroit that shows the effectiveness of low-cost hydroxychloroquine in saving lives. It should convince Dr. Fauci although it will not persuade those who cannot believe that President Trump can be right about anything. ** 

Here is the headline from the July 2 press release of the study, “a large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals”: *

DETROIT--Treatment with hydroxychloroquine cut the death rate significantly in sick patients hospitalized with COVID-19--and without heart-related side-effects, according to a new study published by the Henry Ford Health System.

The following quotes from the press release illustrate the study’s methodology and conclusions. (quotes in italics).

The study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine. None of the patients had documented serious heart abnormalities; however, patients were monitored for a heart condition routinely pointed to as a reason to avoid the drug as a treatment for COVID-19.

Patients treated with hydroxychloroquine at Henry Ford met specific protocol criteria as outlined by the hospital system’s Division of Infectious Diseases. The vast majority received the drug soon after admission; 82% within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours of admission. All patients in the study were 18 or over with a median age of 64 years; 51% were men and 56% African American.

"The findings have been highly analyzed and peer-reviewed,” said Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of Infectious Disease for Henry Ford Health System... “We attribute our findings that differ from other studies to early treatment, and part of a combination of interventions that were done in supportive care of patients, including careful cardiac monitoring. Our dosing also differed from other studies not showing a benefit of the drug. And other studies are either not peer reviewed, have limited numbers of patients, different patient populations or other differences from our patients.”

Our analysis shows that using hydroxychloroquine helped save lives,” said neurosurgeon Dr. Steven Kalkanis, CEO, Henry Ford Medical Group and Senior Vice President and Chief Academic Officer of Henry Ford Health System. “As doctors and scientists, we look to the data for insight. And the data here is clear that there was benefit to using the drug as a treatment for sick, hospitalized patients.”

Speaking of saving lives, last week a group of doctors held a press conference at the Nation’s Capital to describe how they had used the hydroxychloroquine treatment to save lives in the hospitals in which they worked. One was impassioned in claiming that no one has to die from the coronavirus. She claimed that she had treated 350 patients with severe symptoms and none of them had died. Her remarks went viral with over 17 million hits but were taken down by media outlets like You Tube which claimed that the brief video did not meet its community standards. 

The Henry Ford Health Center study has received little attention in the media. Everyone wanted a study back at the outset of the pandemic but when one appears that contains good news, it is ignored. It would appear that there are many people who not only can’t believe a study that shows good results but who actually do not want to believe it no matter what its scientific bonafides.

It is too bad that doctors actually saving lives are censored. I have heard that doctors in hospitals take hydroxychloroquine as a prophylactic but keep it secret for fear of ostracism. The other day I heard a TV commentator refer to health officials who recommended the drug as "killers."

The doctors’ strategy could actually help schools to reopen in the Fall. I don’t mean that children should take hydroxychloroquine. Their immune systems handle the virus easily and they are at virtually no risk of being infected. But their teachers, especially the older ones, could routinely take the inexpensive medication as a precaution.  

###

*The study was published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, the peer-reviewed, open-access online publication of the International Society of Infectious Diseases (ISID.org).

** If you click on the link to the Henry Ford Health center study, you will find that it comes with a warning label as if it is dangerous to read.

Coronavirus News: July 2020

Dr. Marcus Zervos

The impact of the coronavirus has been dramatically different in the four most populous states in the USA. Here are figures as of July 12 showing the number of reported cases and deaths, as well as the percentage of deaths to reported cases. I also include the number of deaths per Million in each state. 

                      Cases           Deaths        Death%        Death/1M  

                        

 California:  320000         7030            2.20%                       178

 Texas:          259000         3228            1.25%                       111

 Florida:        255000        4197            1.65%                       195

 New York:   427000        32393           7.59%                       1665

It is obvious that New York, the fourth most populous state, has been hit the hardest so far. Deaths exceed the combined total of the three largest states. The death rate per million is about 10X that of the other three states. Only neighboring New Jersey exceeds New York with a death rate of 1757 per million. Even tiny Connecticut, the other state in the tristate area, had the third highest death rate in the country at 1220 per million.  

Recently, however, the trend seems to have reversed. The coronavirus has practically disappeared in the tristate area while headlines indicate record numbers of new cases in the sunshine states.  Before trying to explain the spike in numbers in the sunshine states, we should try to understand what happened in New York and its neighbors.

From the first onslaught of the coronavirus medical researchers have warned that there were many more people infected than reported. I have seen estimates (guesses?) that we should multiply the number of reported cases by anywhere from 3 to 100 to get the actual number. As the virus spread over the past few months, the latest estimates are anywhere from 22 to 28. 

In the United States so far there have been 3.248 Million reported cases. If we multiply that figure by 25 we can estimate that over 80,000,000 Americans have been infected. Since there have been 137,429 deaths so far, we can say that 99.9% of those infected have survived. 

My scientific advisor suggests that by now New York and it neighbors have achieved a kind of herd immunity due to the severity of the early onslaught. Even protestors and looters running amok and un-masked in the streets of New York City have not led to a spike in coronavirus cases. I have been tracking the coronavirus in Great Britain and Italy since March because the virus hit them before us, and hit them harder. Recent reports indicate that the virus has for all events and purposes disappeared in those two countries.

I recall that when I visited California in February the virus had just begun there but as can be seen from the figures it did not take hold there. My scientific advisor believes that sunshine producing Vitamin D was more important than lockdowns in high sunshine states in flattening the curve. Millions of people in California, Florida, and Texas were infected but their immune systems, fortified by Vitamin D, fought it off so that most did not even get tested for the virus.

Speaking of testing, in the beginning tests were only administered to people with symptoms like coughing, fever, and fatigue. Back in March and April only 15 % of those tested had the coronavirus. The other 85% had something else. Now tests are being conducted on anyone so that while the number of those testing positive has grown, only 6% of those tested in June have been positive. 

The number of tests in the USA is approaching 40 Million. California with so few reported cases now leads the nation with over 5 Million tests. Obviously, most of these people who are now testing positive had the virus and have gotten over it. Moreover, they are now probably immune.   

In an op-ed entitled “The Coronavirus Credibility Gap” that appeared in the Wall Street Journal on July 2, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, an Associate Professor at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine, discussed immunity.

And while there is more to learn about immunity, there has not been a single confirmed case of reinfection among the 10 million cases of Covid-19 world-wide, according to a May report in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Until the data say otherwise, people who have recovered from Covid-19 should be exempt from restrictions.

In its last weekly report my home town of Fairfield, CT reported that only two cases of coronavirus have been reported in the past week, and that there has been only one coronavirus related death in the past month. Moreover, the state of Connecticut “currently has very low numbers of new cases and hospitalizations, as well as the lowest transmission rate in the country.” 

In more good news a July 2 report from the Henry Ford Health System indicates that a new study shows the effectiveness of low-cost hydroxychloroquine in saving lives. Here is the headline:

DETROIT--Treatment with hydroxychloroquine cut the death rate significantly in sick patients hospitalized with COVID-19--and without heart-related side-effects, according to a new study published by the Henry Ford Health System.

I reproduce the news release below and you can judge for yourselves. Of course, those who opposed the treatment because of its endorsement by President Trump have already tried to poke holes in the study.

###

In a large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals, the study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine. None of the patients had documented serious heart abnormalities; however, patients were monitored for a heart condition routinely pointed to as a reason to avoid the drug as a treatment for COVID-19.

The study was published today in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, the peer-reviewed, open-access online publication of the International Society of Infectious Diseases (ISID.org).

Patients treated with hydroxychloroquine at Henry Ford met specific protocol criteria as outlined by the hospital system’s Division of Infectious Diseases. The vast majority received the drug soon after admission; 82% within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours of admission. All patients in the study were 18 or over with a median age of 64 years; 51% were men and 56% African American.

“The findings have been highly analyzed and peer-reviewed,” said Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of Infectious Disease for Henry Ford Health System, who co-authored the study with Henry Ford epidemiologist Dr. Samia Arshad. “We attribute our findings that differ from other studies to early treatment, and part of a combination of interventions that were done in supportive care of patients, including careful cardiac monitoring. Our dosing also differed from other studies not showing a benefit of the drug. And other studies are either not peer reviewed, have limited numbers of patients, different patient populations or other differences from our patients.”

Zervos said the potential for a surge in the fall or sooner, and infections continuing worldwide, show an urgency to identifying inexpensive and effective therapies and preventions.

“We’re glad to add to the scientific knowledge base on the role and how best to use therapies as we work around the world to provide insight,” he said. “Considered in the context of current studies on the use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19, our results suggest that the drug may have an important role to play in reducing COVID-19 mortality.”

The study also found those treated with azithromycin alone or a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin also fared slightly better than those not treated with the drugs, according to the Henry Ford data. The analysis found 22.4% of those treated only with azithromycin died, and 20.1% treated with a combination of azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 26.4% of patients dying who were not treated with either medication.

“Our analysis shows that using hydroxychloroquine helped saves lives,” said neurosurgeon Dr. Steven Kalkanis, CEO, Henry Ford Medical Group and Senior Vice President and Chief Academic Officer of Henry Ford Health System. “As doctors and scientists, we look to the data for insight. And the data here is clear that there was benefit to using the drug as a treatment for sick, hospitalized patients.”

Coronavirus: Ministry of Fear

Fish mongers sell fish and fear mongers sell fear. Newspapers have always resorted to alarming headlines to attract readers and gain ad revenue. In the past few decades television and the Internet have brought fear tactics to new levels. Every day when I open my home page there are alarming headlines all designed to gather “hits” or page views. In the age or the Internet every “hit” generates revenue, either directly or through increased ad rates.

The coronavirus has been a bonanza for the fear mongers. Almost from the first they have used excessive projections (now discredited), and alarming anecdotes to sell fear and anxiety. Covid-19, the preferred name for the virus, sounded like some alien invader even though it was just an abbreviation of corona and virus with 19 tacked on to indicate the year it started.

It is true that as of June 23 there have been 122659 deaths in the USA but let’s put that into context and avoid projections and anecdotes. The United States has a total population of about 328 Million. Every year about 2.8 Million, less than 1%, die in this country of all causes.

Total population: 3280000000

Corona test total: 27554000

Total positive: 2312000

Total deaths: 122659

Only 8.3% of those tested were positive. At the outset of the epidemic about 15% were positive. Back then, tests were only given to those with symptoms. Eighty five percent of those tested had something else. Now, we are obviously testing people without symptoms or who were infected but recovered. In any case testing positive is not the proverbial kiss of death. It is not like the bubonic plague where once the tell-tale signs appeared, you would be dead in a matter of days.

As of the morning of June 23, 122659 deaths have been attributed to the coronavirus. That means the 5.3% of those who tested positive have died, but that the remaining 94.7% have so far survived. We now know that the great majority of the deceased were over age 65, with most over 80 and living in nursing homes where they had been previously confined for other medical problems.

Contrary to popular wisdom, the elderly are particularly vulnerable not because their immune systems are weak, but because their immune systems are too strong after a long lifetime of fighting off other diseases. An over-reaction of the immune systems causes inflammation and obstructs breathing. Most of the elderly who test positive for the virus usually die of pneumonia, a secondary infection.

Doctors have been treating the victims with cortisone, an anti-inflammatory even though it can have dangerous side effects if not used properly. Other doctors have prescribed Plaquinil, another anti-inflammatory, and the Z-pac to deal with the secondary infection. Critics have objected to Plaquinil, originally an anti-malaria drug, because it has not been fully tested for the virus.

It is the immune system reaction that causes the familiar symptoms—coughing, fever, and fatigue—that lay most people low for a couple of days. Most of the people infected quickly recover and develop an immunity that will protect them against future strains of the virus. People hope that a “cure” will be found but for most of us the cure is right in the immune system of our own bodies. As long experience tells us, when symptoms appear we just should take to bed and let our immune system do the job.

It is clear that the spread of the virus has been slowing down. From mid-March to mid-April the number of deaths in the USA grew from less than a hundred to more than 20000. By mid-May deaths had increased to over 80000, an increase of 300%, but by mid-June, even though the number of deaths grew to over 112000, the rate of increase was only 40%. It is slowing down enough that Governors in states that were hit very hard are beginning to open up.

Nevertheless, the fear mongers must still peddle their wares. Now they see the virus “spiking” in sunshine states where the virus originally made little headway. In Florida, for example, the number of cases from June 19 to June 23 jumped from 86000 to 100000, a 14% jump, but the number of deaths only increased from 3064 to 3170, a 3.6% increase over those five days.

The number of cases is obviously spiking because of the increase in testing. All along, medical researchers have argued that many more people have contacted the virus than have reported it. I have seen estimates that say we should multiply the number of positive results by a factor of from 3 to 100. Even if we use a mid-range multiplier and multiply the 2.3 Million positives by 22, it would appear that over 50 Million of us have contacted the virus by now. Only 122000 have died and the remainder have survived and likely become immune to further invasions. *

Of course, the threat of future invasions of the dreaded virus is now the last resort of the fear mongers. But even if it does come back in the fall, not only will many of us be immune but we also know a lot more about how to deal with it than before. We know who is in danger and who is not. We know that most young people will hardly know they have symptoms if they do get infected, especially remarkably fit athletes.

Recently, a story went viral about a group of sixteen young women who celebrated a birthday in a crowded Florida bar. Subsequently, they all tested positive for the coronavirus. The headline was alarming but if you read the story, none of them got seriously ill. They were in more danger from the alcohol they were drinking.

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*Note: I asked my scientific advisor about immunity. He replied:

99% of those who recover will be immune to it. There are always some other possibilities given individual genetic and immune differences and personal body conditions. You are probably correct with the mumps analogy having the disease and recovering from it naturally probably affords more resistance than a vaccine against the disease. For a virus whether you get a vaccine or have the actual disease will usually take about 14 days to develop full, lifetime, immunity to it.

Coronavirus and Sunshine

Why have some states done so much better in combatting the coronavirus, and others so much worse? The answer is complicated but one of the reasons would seem to be sunshine. The actual figures show that states in the so-called sunshine belt have had far better results than states in the northern part of the country.

In high sunshine states from Florida across the southern border to California, the results have been markedly better. The national average of deaths per million is 258. As of May 14 heavily populated Florida has had only 1829 deaths or 85 deaths per million. California, the most populous state, has had only 2966 deaths, or 75 per million even though their cities are among the most heavily populated in the country. Among the large states Texas leads the pack with only 1217 deaths, a phenomenal rate of 42 deaths per million. *

On the other hand, northern states like New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut have the worst record by far. New York’s 27290 deaths amount to 1403 deaths per million, more than five times the National average of 238, even though its figures make up part of the National average. New Jersey comes in second with 9727 deaths and a death rate of 1095 per million. Tiny Connecticut’s 3125 deaths put it in third place with a death rate of 877 per million residents. Is it a coincidence that Connecticut’s Governor has just fired his health Director?

The disparities in these numbers would seem to indicate that human efforts to control the virus are not as significant a factor as nature. When I started writing about the virus two months ago, I consulted my brother, a biologist and teacher, who from the outset argued that as the days grew longer in the Spring, the increased sunshine would replenish the amount of Vitamin D in our bodies, and build up the ability of our immune system to combat its effects.

Here are his latest thoughts on the subject:

When I was in college, I don't remember ever having any course where viruses where seriously taught. I learned more about them as they became part of my AP Biology curriculum, but even then I was just scratching the surface as so much more has been learned about them since the advent of HIV and AIDS. I recently read an article from about 2018 in a Harvard publication which claimed that Vitamin D is more effective that the vaccines currently used against the flu. It seems that not only does Vitamin D lessen the severity of the flu but can actually limit the number of viruses infecting cells to a point where a person will be asymptomatic. Many people claim they never have gotten the flu. I don't believe that I have ever gotten the flu either; however, those people and myself probably do get infected but mount an immune response so effective that it prevents the virus from getting a foothold in the body.

Antioxidants found in fruit and berries such as blueberries coupled with Vitamin D could be just as effective as any vaccine against the corona virus. Olives and Olive oil is one of the substances which contains high levels of antioxidants. The role of antioxidants is a little complicated but in short they play a major role in controlling the inflammatory response.

In addition to the Sun’s role as a source of Vitamin D, sunshine also appears to make outdoors a very dangerous place for the millions of microscopic viruses that can be found in one cough. A recent study from the Homeland Security agency demonstrated that the combination of higher temperatures and humidity is fatal to the virus. 

I speculated that most of the virus horde would not be able to survive the incredibly long (given the size of the virus) and dangerous journey from one host to another. Here is my brother’s response. 

Airborne viral survival is tricky. As you know many factors influence its survival. Humidity, Temperature, UV radiation, wind speed and how much the virus is coated with water or mucus expelled by the host. Under certain conditions 6 feet is probably not sufficient distance which is why when I have to wait on lines to enter a store I make sure the wind is at my back.  

I believe many people have inadvertently contracted the virus by touching the outside of their mask and then touching their nose or mouth once they took the mask off.  As long as you are away from another person, I see no problem in coughing out the virus into the air but some people naturally will cough onto their hand and then touch something like a door knob with the virus waiting for someone else to touch it. 

It would appear that the southern states have already weathered the storm. Coincidentally, the growth of the virus has subsided dramatically in sunny Italy during the past few weeks. In the meantime, it is necessary to still practice caution in the Northern states. Still, the combination of higher temperatures and humidity should make outdoors the safest place to be.

* Louisiana is an outlier among the southern states with a death rate of 512 per million residents. A good reason was given in the video linked above.

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Coronavirus Survivors

Coronavirus Survivors

Let’s look at the coronavirus figures this year in the USA.

The population of the country is about 328 Million. So far about 7.2 million of us (2.3%) have been tested. Practically all of the tests have been done on people with symptoms but only about 1.2 Million (16%) have tested positive. The other 84% had some other reason for their symptoms. Of those who have tested positive 72284 have died, a death rate of about 6%. 

On the other side of the coin, 94% of those who tested positive, over 1.1 Million people, have survived the infection so far.

But wait a minute.

Scientific researchers tell us that the number of those testing positive must be multiplied to include those who have or had symptoms, ranging from negligible to severe, but have not reported them.  I have seen estimates that suggest that the number of positive cases must be multiplied by anywhere from 3 to 100 times the number of confirmed cases. Recent evidence from New York indicates that the actual multiplier is about 22.

In that case the number of people infected by the virus would be about 26.5 Million (1204000 x 22). The number of actual deaths (72804) represents less than one tenth of one percent of those infected. Looking at it another way, over 26 Million people, 99.7 percent of those infected, have so far survived.

 Cases                 1204000 x 22 =            26488000 infected

Deaths:                  72284 or 6%                    72284 or .2729%

Survivors:           1131716 or 84%            26415716 or .9973%

The U.S. health care systems seems to be doing a remarkably good job. As noted above the number of those who have died (72000) divided by the number of reported cases (1204000) is 6%. In the United Kingdom, the rate is over 15% (29500/196000), and in Italy the rate is 13.8% (29315/213013).  

Nevertheless, although the increase in the number of deaths is slowing, 72000 still beats what we have experienced during normal winter flu seasons. Perhaps the virus is more virulent than others but there could be other factors involved.

In the United States, a country of about 328 Million people, the death rate has been increasing over the past few years even before the coronavirus epidemic. Every year, about 2.5 Million people die in this country, less than 1% of the total population. In 2016 .008475 percent of the population died; in 2017 it was .00858 percent; and in 2018 .008685 percent. The reason for the increase is obviously demographic. The population of the country is aging and the so-called baby boomers are dying out.

I was born in 1939 and technically not a baby boomer, but I have been a witness to the phenomenon for most of my life. Despite the natural tendency of humans to complain, the baby boomers have been the longest lived, the most prosperous, and the most fortunate generation in the history of the world. But now that the eldest of them are 75, the number of deaths in this country must inevitably increase over the next few years. 

Great advances in technology, nutrition, and medicine have kept us alive so that the life expectancy in this country has reached an average of 78.6 years, much higher than it was back in 1945. 

Nevertheless, as the saying goes, “everybody dies.” In 2017, 647000 died of heart disease, and 600000 died of cancer, the two greatest killers.  Chronic lower respiratory tract disease caused about 160000 deaths while strokes claimed another 146000. Alzheimer’s, another malady of the elderly, claimed about 120000 lives, and diabetes was responsible for 84000. Finally, 57000 died of flu and pneumonia. 

In the current crisis, the elderly, especially those with other problems like hypertension, diabetes, and dementia have been particularly vulnerable. For some reason, our immune systems overreact to the virus and cause inflammation and eventually pneumonia.  Thus, the reason for the ventilators. 

In Connecticut it has been reported that more than 50% of the 2556 victims have been elderly residents of nursing homes. In my own town here in Connecticut there have been 423 people who have tested positive for the virus, and 72 have died. Of the 72, 86% were residents of nursing homes. I am not blaming nursing homes, hospitals, or the people who serve in the health care system in this country. The very great majority of their patients have survived. 

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