Report on the Economy

 The Economy

The US Census Bureau recently released its latest economic report for the year 2025, the first year of the second Trump administration. Here are some of the findings.

Median household income rose to an all time high of $87,460, surpassing the previous peak of $$85,420 set in 2019 during the first Trump administration. Median income means that half the households in the country make more than that amount, and the other half make less. The Census bureau prefers median to average income because the latter is skewed by outliers on both ends of the economic spectrum. 

Unemployment was at an all time low, and layoffs were rare. At the same time, the poverty rate also fell to an all-time low of 10.2%. That is certainly good news. 

These figures seem to confirm that America prospered in the first year of President Trump’s second term, and despite inflation, there are indicators that the economic boom has continued in 2026.  Stock indexes have repeatedly made new highs. In every speech the President talks about massive new investments in the economy that will create thousands of new well-paying jobs.

But what about inflation?

In recent remarks Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that “core inflation” is currently at 2.4%, close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, energy prices are not included in “core inflation” figures, and obviously the Iranian war and the subsequent interruptions of oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have caused oil prices to spike causing substantial increases in the price of oil and gas. The average price of gas at the pump has risen to about $4.50 although that figure will vary from state to state. *

However, on September 29. The Wall Street Journal headlined the news that Middle East oil producers are now shipping almost 80% of their pre- war shipments. This news confirms what retired General David Petraeus explained in a Journal op- ed the day before. Oil prices, which had climbed over $100 per barrel during the summer, are now around $90 per barrel. If this trend continues, it will be good inflation news. 

Speaking of dollars, I have also been following the price of gold and silver this year. Even before the Iran war, the price of the two metals had soared to record highs. In particular, I follow the price of an exchange traded fund that just invests in silver. The fund’s symbol is SLV and in February it soared to about $110 per share. In other words, it would have taken $110 of your dollars to buy one share, while in the previous February it would only have taken about $30 dollars.

Before the war began, precious metal prices were signaling a decline in the value of the dollar, a definite sign of inflation.  However, since the war began, precious metal prices have steadily declined to the point where today you could have bought a share of SLV for $55, half what you would have paid in February. Our dollars are worth much more than they were at the beginning of the war, and so we should be able to buy more with them. A rise on the value of the dollar means a decline in inflation.

Nevertheless, my wife insists that prices continue to rise not only at the pump, but also in the supermarket. However, she did note that the price of the store brand of bite size shredded wheat, my favorite breakfast cereal, just dropped from $2.19 to $1.99 a box. Could the cereal be a leading economic indicator?

###

*Note: In the summer of 2022, as the Biden administration faced the mid-term elections, the average price of gas at the pump was $5.00. 

War and Peace

  

 

 

Even the most virulent Trump haters would have to admit that so far, the attack on Iran has been one of the most humane wars that the United States has ever conducted. Not only has President Trump shown great care in protecting American combatants, but also his decision to refrain from bombing Iranian civilian targets is almost unprecedented in modern warfare. 

 

Moreover, he resorted to bombing military targets only after negotiations broke down and the Iranians bragged that they were on the verge of producing not one but a dozen nuclear weapons. Even after the combined US and Israeli attacks destroyed the Iranian Air Force, Air Defense systems, and Navy, President Trump has continually held out the olive branch of a negotiated peaceful settlement. 

 

Nevertheless, the President gets no credit from his detractors in politics or the media for the way in which the Iranian campaign has been conducted. Even a regular reader of the conservative editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal will be hard pressed to find a word of praise either for the initial overwhelming success of the operation, or the concern for Iranian civilians. 

 

Instead, Democrats can’t wait to impeach President Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth for waging successful operations in Venezuela and Iran with little loss of life. It seems that they wish for failure and hope for more casualties in order to damage the Administration. On the other hand, they rarely blame the terrorists who have been attacking civilians for years, especially when these terrorists claim to be Moslems.

 

By definition, terrorists direct their attacks on innocent civilians as a way to cow a population into submission.  I know all Moslems are not terrorists, but a high percentage of terrorists claim to be Moslem. The attack on the World Trade Center 25 years ago that killed about 3000 innocent civilians was planned and carried out by fanatical Islamists in the name of Allah, one of the greatest misuses of the name of God in history. 

 

Hamas, another fanatical Islamist group, bears responsibility for the murder, rape, torture, and abduction inflicted on Israeli civilians in October 2023, a brutal crime against humanity. Who will ever forget how these murderers exulted in this terrible crime against humanity? They even seemed to enjoy it. Sadly, that brutal attack on a Jewish community has it apologists both in the Moslem world, and here in America where antisemitism is on the rise among Social Democrats who are now welcomed into the Democratic Party’s Big Tent.

 

On the other hand, an op ed in this week’s Wall Street Journal by an Israeli who had been held hostage for over 500 days in Gaza, provided an eyewitness account of the care taken by the Israeli military to avoid civilian casualties in their response against Hamas in Gaza. Nevertheless, Jews are blamed for genocide.

 

Finally, while constantly criticizing the President, Democrats fail to blame the Islamic Republic of Iran, the leading sponsor of terrorism in the world ever since the Islamic revolution. Earlier this year the Iranian regime slaughtered thousands of its own people to keep the rest in line. In his recent speech at the UN, President Trump put the number at 70,000. Does anyone remember the countless missiles aimed at Israeli cities by Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, even before the American/Israeli attack in March?

 

In this week’s speech at the UN, President Trump laid out his claim to be a humanitarian peacemaker. Only 35 minutes long, and lacking the usual campaign rhetoric, it is well worth watching. He even went so far as to condemn the persecution of Christians still going on in many parts of the world. I cannot remember an American President ever making such a statement in a public forum. Here is a link to his speech.

 

###

Trump's Mid-Term Convention Speech

I watched most of President Trump’s speech at the unprecedented Republican Mid-term Convention last week. I must admit that it is hard to give a description of what he said as he characteristically meandered all over the place throughout the two hours. I did not attempt to take notes but would like to offer a few thoughts on things that stuck out.

In the first place, I was struck by the manner, and not the matter of what he said. In all my years I have never seen a politician having such a good time while giving a speech. At age 80 he was so full of life that the speech could be called joyful despite the seriousness of some of the topics. He seemed to be really enjoying himself. In this respect, he was in stark contrast to any other politician in either party.

We just have to compare him with his Democratic predecessors in the Presidency. Whether you like Trump or not, you must admit that Barack Obama, or Joe Biden never exhibited the slightest sense of humor in their public utterances. Obama usually appeared as a scolding schoolmaster, who always used a teleprompter in delivering his carefully prepared speeches.  Biden hardly spoke at all. In his four years in office he rarely gave a press conference. He even seemed reluctant to hold Cabinet meetings, apparently having little use for the motley crew that he had assembled. 

Trump’s sense of humor, often self-deprecating, was obvious throughout. I cannot forget the way he described his encounter with French President Macron. His reproduction of the dialogue between two heads of state was almost comical. 

Trump: Sir, you will have to raise your drug prices so that we can lower ours.

Macron: Mr. President, I won’t do that.

Trump: Oh yes you will, or I will impose tariffs of 50 to 100 percent on imports of French wines.

Macron: Please Mr. President, don’t do that.

In the end, Macron complied. 

As far as the substance of Trump’s speech is concerned, it is clear that he was deliberately speaking to his Republican base. By now, he and his advisors know that there is no way that he can appeal to those who dislike him, some to the point of hatred. They will not listen, even if the hostile media would report his words. As far as I could see, only Fox News carried his speech. The President of the United States was giving a major address, and other networks declined to let their viewers hear it.

Trump and his advisors also know that Democratic Socialist primary victories have come with only 10 to 20 percent of eligible voters. These victories have been based on voter apathy. They have obviously decided to concentrate on getting out the Republican vote in the normally quiet off year elections. That is why he insists that he is on the ballot, and why he will campaign so vigorously this year.

He promised in the next two months to continue to list the many accomplishments of his administration that most Democrats, and even Republicans have never heard of because of the largely hostile media.  I am a daily reader of the Wall Street Journal but have never seen it mentioned that drug prices in the USA have gone from the highest in the world to the lowest during his administration. Opponents will say he is lying, but the claim should be easy to fact check.

Despite fears of inflation and affordability he believes that the economy is booming and will continue to do so if Republicans can hold the House and Senate in November.  If that happens, he promised that the government could afford to pay $5000 to each American adult in the same way a successful business will pay a dividend to its shareholders. Democrats, who usually delight in giving money away, will call it a bribe, and naturally oppose. 

With this speech, the President came out fighting.  It will be interesting to see if his strategy works in November. 

###

9/11/01: Anniversary

 

I have never written about the destruction of the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, and the loss of almost 3000 innocent lives on that tragic day. It was just too hard to contemplate or write about. Like millions of others, I know exactly where I was when I first heard the news of first one and then another plane crashing into the Towers. 

At first it seemed like an accident but soon it became clear that it was a deliberate attack not only on the people inside the buildings, but also on the Nation itself by Moslem terrorists. Almost as shocking as the event itself was the reaction of Moslems around the world who publicly applauded the death and destruction.

Twenty five years later it is still sad to hear some still refuse to condemn the 9/11 attack. Many downplay, soft-pedal, or otherwise refuse to blame Islamic terrorists for the attack. Instead, they fear Islamophobia despite the fact that Moslem communities have flourished in New York and other major American cities over the past 25 years. Last year, Zohran Mamdani, the current Mayor of New York City, spoke of his first reaction to the news of 9/11 as a schoolboy. “My experience of 9/11 is one I share with many New Yorkers. My teacher let me know that something had happened that morning and I might be bullied because of it.”

You would think he would get over his fear of Islamophobia now that he is mayor of a city with a thriving Islamic community that was integral to his election. Other Democratic Socialists are even worse. Prominent spokesman Hasan Piker believes that “America deserved 9/11.”

As the mid-term elections approach, here is a suggestion for politicians on all sides. You know how they end their commercials with the following disclaimer.  "I’m so and so, and I approve this message.” It would be good if they could preface their remarks with the following.

 

I pledge allegiance

To the flag

Of the United States of America

And to the Republic

For which it stands

One Nation,

Under God,

Indivisible,

With liberty and justice

For all.

###

Affordability

Democrats, Progressives, and Democratic Socialists will make affordability one of the big issues in the upcoming mid-term elections. None of them seemed to care much about rising prices and inflation during the Biden administration. In 2022, a year after the inauguration of President Biden, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.6%. During the same period energy prices increased 34.6%, and groceries jumped 11.9%. In particular, eggs were up 32.2%, chicken 16.6%, milk 15.9%, and even soup was up by 13.9%. 

I remember my shock in 2022 when my heating oil company told me that my oil price would be $6.50 per gallon. Thankfully, this year I have been able to lock in my price at about $4.00 per gallon for the coming season despite the war in Iran. Nevertheless, since the election of President Trump, the news has been full of dire stories about affordability and price inflation.

I started thinking about affordability last year during the baseball World Series. I noticed that, whether in Los Angeles or Toronto, the stands were packed with fans most of whom seemed to be young men. I wondered where they got the money to pay more than $1000 for not even a box seat. I wondered where they also got the money to pay the exorbitant stadium prices for hot dogs, beer and soda.

It was the same thing at the Super Bowl, March Madness, and the NBA finals. I have grandchildren, recent college graduates, who were actually able to attend such events. One even flew from California to San Antonio to watch the Knicks beat the Spurs in the season’s finale.

These events paled in significance to the recent World Cup held at packed venues in the USA, Canada, and Mexico. Millions of people from all over the world paid ridiculous sums to attend. It was not just the tickets, but the travel, hotel, and food that hardly seemed to faze them. One day in my dentist’s office, I could overhear the hygienist, who happened to be from Cape Verde, tell the dentist that she had flown down to Miami for the weekend to watch her team play.

Sporting events are just one way people spend money. Entertainers like Taylor Swift have become some of the richest people in the world giving concerts packed mainly with cheering young women. Another of my grandchildren even flew to Europe for one of Swift’s concerts.

From my own limited viewpoint I can say that many of these people have jobs and choose to spend their earnings on their own entertainment. That’s ok, it's their money. But they don’t seem to have an affordability issue.

Others, I suspect, can ‘t really afford to attend these events, but just use their credit cards. Recent studies indicate that credit card debt is at an all-time high, as is the number of people who are more than three months behind in their card payments.

I knew a young man with a good job who had amassed credit card debt of over $100,000. The interest alone on that debt would have been over $18000 a year or $1500 per month with no way in sight to ever pay off the principal. How could he afford to buy a home, or rent a decent apartment? No wonder he might be concerned about the price of food or gas. His out-of-control spending created his own affordability problem.

Yes, I know that most people do not attend these high-priced events, and that many are having to deal with higher prices for their daily living expenses. There are many ways to deal with higher prices, but I will leave that discussion to another day. Here I would just like to point out that government waste and fraud is a major culprit.

Another of my grandchildren is disabled. He is able to live independently and participates in the SNAP program. One month his SNAP payment was stolen from his bank account by a fraudster. This is just one example of how the massive amounts of government aid that have been meant for the truly poor and needy have been hijacked by fraudsters in recent years.

It is not only taxpayers that have been victimized by fraud but also the needy who never received the funds appropriated to help with their living expenses. They can blame the fraudsters and the politicians who enabled them for their affordability crisis.

###