Trump's Prospects

In a recent Wall Street Journal column, Daniel Henninger, editor and regular columnist, repeated the 2020 election analysis that has now become generally accepted. To paraphrase Jane Austen, if President Trump had only behaved in "a more gentleman like manner," he would not have turned off so many voters and lost the election. Or, in the words of a friend of mine, President Trump was a “turn-off, a narcissistic, demeaning bully, as well as an egotistical BS artist." To give my friend credit, he voted for Trump, because he believed the alternative was even worse. Other acquaintances went even further and regarded Trump with dislike bordering on overt hatred.

However, if President Trump’s personality turned off so many voters in 2020, how did he manage to get over 11 Million more votes than he did in 2016? In 2020 his 74 Million votes set a record for an incumbent President. Now that Donald Trump has officially entered the 2024 presidential race, it might be helpful to take a closer look at the figures of the last election.

First, here is a spreadsheet that compares the Trump vote totals in 2020 and 2016.  First are four key battleground states that gave Joe Biden the victory in 2020, then four "red" states, and then two different "blue" states. 

 

	2020	2016	Increase	Gain%
Arizona	1661686	1252401	409285	32.68%
Georgia	2461854	2069154	392700	18.98%
Pennsylvania	3377674	2970733	406941	13.70%
Wisconsin	1610184	1405284	204900	14.58%
Total	9111398	7697572	1413826	18.37%
Florida	5668731	4617881	1050850	22.76%
North Carolina	2758775	2362631	396144	16.77%
Ohio	3154834	2814005	340829	12.11%
Texas	5890347	4685047	1205300	25.73%
	17472687	14479564	2993123	20.67%
California	6006429	4483810	1522619	33.96%
CT	715291	673215	42076	6.25%
Total	74223369	62984828	11238541	17.84%

In the four battleground states that decided the election by the slimmest of margins, his vote total increased by over 18% with a whopping 33% increase in Arizona. How did he win easy victories in Florida and Ohio, states that were very close in 2016? Polls (who can believe them anymore?) showed those states in play in 2020 but President Trump won easily. In Ohio he gained over 340000 more votes, a 12% increase over 2016. In Florida his vote total was a Million more than it was in 2016, a gain of over 22%. Polls showed even Texas close in 2020 but Trump won going away. He increased his 2016 vote total there by 1.2 million votes, a 25% gain. 

Even in California, the bluest of states, President Trump gained over 1.5 Million votes, a 33% increase, despite the fact that his voters had to know that there was no chance of winning in California. More than anything else the California vote indicates an incredible level of enthusiasm for the candidate. In fact, the above figures show that despite four years of bitter opposition on the part of Democratic politicians, the main stream media, and even the the Federal government establishment, President Trump gained in popularity. Despite two failed impeachment attempts, official investigations, and incessant criticism, Trump gained in popularity.

I am not bringing these figures up to replay the last election, but to indicate that the figures are very important for the next one in 2024. Despite media claims, Trump supporters are not a small minority of right-wing nuts. Trump has entered the race and his supporters make up the bulk of the Republican party. He is the front runner and no Republican can win without his supporters. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida is an attractive candidate with a good record but he can not beat Trump for the Republican nomination. 

I was sorry to hear that Trump had decided to run in 2024, but not because I don't like him. Actually, I admire his abrasive manner, but I also believe he did an excellent job as President. Nevertheless, I think the office is too much for a man approaching 80, and that it might harm him and his family. Look at poor Joe Biden. But if Trump and DeSantis patch up their personal differences, DeSantis would be a perfect heir apparent. Voters could rest secure that even if old age took its toll on Trump, there would be a  capable successor, something that is notably lacking in the present administration.  Moreover, a Trump/De Santis Administration could  ensure Republican supremacy for not four, but twelve years.

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Barbara Stanwyck: Ball of Fire

  

Although nominated four times, Barbara Stanwyck never won an Academy Award for Best Actress. Today, many film critics regard her as one of the greatest, if not the greatest actress in Hollywood history. Few actresses have been able to match her intensity and range of emotions on the screen. To take an expression from one of her films, she was a “ball of fire.”

 Her career began on Broadway in 1923 at the age of 16 when she appeared as a Ziegfeld girl, and by 1927 she was a Broadway star. She moved to Hollywood in 1929 at the onset of the talking picture era. She became a favorite of up-and-coming director Frank Capra who starred her in the controversial 1933 pre-code film, The Bitter Tea of General Yen. However, most of her films from the thirties, in which she played mainly downtrodden young women, are virtually unwatchable today including her title role in Stella Dallas for which she received an Academy Award nomination in 1937. 

Although her career lasted well into the TV era, I believe she reached her peak early in the 1940s with five films that showed her at her best in roles ranging from romantic comedy to dark drama. She was helped considerably by her collaboration with famed costume designer, Edith Head. According to Hollywood lore, most designers declined to work with Stanwyck whom they regarded as a plain Jane. Edith Head jumped at the opportunity and proceeded to glamorize Stanwyck. Here are my favorites. 

Edith Head

Remember the Night. Stanwyck stars with Fred MacMurray in this little known 1940 romantic comedy set in the holiday season. Stanwyck plays a shoplifter on trial before District Attorney MacMurray, but circumstances lead them to spend the holidays together. In this film, written by Preston Sturges, who subsequently  went on to become a famous director, Stanwyck transformed her character from a petty thief to a self-sacrificing heroine. The cast includes Beulah Bondi, Sterling Holloway, and Elizabeth Patterson. 

The Lady Eve. Stanwyck and Henry Fonda star in this 1941 “screwball” comedy written and directed by Preston Sturges. A con man and his beautiful daughter connive to cheat a wealthy young man at cards on a cruise ship. But their plans go awry when she falls for the innocent dupe. Stanwyck is at her comedic best in this film. In effect, she plays two roles, the low-down, savvy con artist, and a charming and vivacious English aristocrat, and knocks both out of the park. Edith Head’s costumes for this film are magnificent.

Meet John Doe. Stanwyck and Gary Cooper are a great match-up in director Frank Capra’s 1941 masterpiece. During the Depression, a tabloid newspaper launches a bogus story about a man who claims that he intends to jump off City Hall to protest society’s abuses. Incredibly, this hoax turns into a national movement that is seized upon by a scheming politician in order to gain power. Director Capra claimed that Stanwyck’s first take was always her best. In subsequent takes of the same scene, her passion and intensity would tend to wane. Capra solved the problem by rehearsing the other actors before Stanwyck’s first take. I don’t know if he did it all the time, but it worked in Meet John Doe.  

Ball of Fire. Stanwyck and Gary Cooper followed up their success in Meet John Doe with this 1941 comedy classic. Stanwyck earned a Best Actress nomination playing a burlesque dancer and gangster’s moll who hides out from the law in the headquarters of a bunch of nerdy professors engaged in writing an encyclopedia. Stanwyck sings and dances and turns on the charm as only she could to captivate the professors in a film somewhat reminiscent of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. 

Double Indemnity. Stanwyck stars again  with Fred MacMurray, but this time as a blonde femme fatale in what many consider the best film noir of all time. This 1944 film established Billy Wilder as one of Hollywood’s top directors, and features Edward G. Robinson in one of his best roles. For most of her career, Stanwyck was a free agent not under contract to any major studio. She was free to pick her roles and became Hollywood’s top earning woman by 1944. Initially, she balked at playing a woman, cheap blonde wig and all, scheming to murder her wealthy older husband, but Wilder reportedly said that a real actress could do it. She did and achieved film immortality. 

Stanwyck’s success in Double Indemnity led to roles in other dark dramas like The Strange Love of Martha Ivers in 1946, and the 1948 thriller, Sorry, Wrong Number for which she also received an Academy Award nomination. Inevitably, as she grew older her film career began to fade, but she did manage to revive her career on TV where two long running series earned her three Emmys. 

I prefer to watch these films on DVD for a number of reasons. In particular, DVDs often come with special features that range from biographical data to extended audio commentaries that may be turned on to accompany the film. For example, the DVD for The Lady Eve contains drawings and comments by costume designer Edith Head on what it took not only to glamorize Stanwyck, but also to make her clothes help in her characterizations. It also contains  one of the best film commentaries I have ever heard, an almost scene by scene discussion of The Lady Eve by film scholar Marian Keane. Great actresses like Stanwyck  made things look easy and natural on the screen but a guide like Keane is an invaluable resource in showing how the star did it.

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We Are the Champions

  

  

 

The St. Anselm College Division II Men’s’ basketball team may not be the champions of the world, but this weekend the Hawks became the champions of the very competitive New England 10 (NE10) conference that actually includes 13 teams. After a successful season, the Hawks won three tough games in the tournament to claim the title. 

 

I have been following the team for the past two years because my grandson, Matt Becker, is a starter. This year I have watched live streams of practically every game on my desktop and have become a real fan not just of my grandson but of the team itself. You might say that I have bonded with them all to the point where I have even given them pet nicknames. Here is a little tribute to the players.

 

Miles Tention (Cool Cat Tention):  Team leader Tention never lost his head in the tournament. He made crucial baskets, and key stops during critical moments. His five-year career at St. Anselm was capped off in the tournament final with a steal and subsequent dunk that sealed the victory.

Tyler Arbuckle (Crazy O’Buckle): The team’s leading scorer, who never met a shot he would not hesitate to take, also set a Hawk record for hitting the deck. 

Matt Becker (the Mattador): On defense throughout the season and in the tournament, Becker challenged every opponent’s top gun, and in the pivotal semi-final thriller against nationally ranked Bentley, he threw down a career high 32 points in the 71-70 victory. 

Owen McGlashan (Mighty Mac): McGlashan came up big in the tournament final with 12 points and 8 rebounds against New Haven’s 7’1” Defensive Player of the Year.

Zach Taylor (Outback Zack): The Aussie also came up big in the tournament especially with his work down under the basket on both ends of the court.

Matt Relihan (Sir Relihan): Although relegated to the bench for most of the season, Relihan came up with key plays on both offense and defense in the Bentley win. 

Finally, a word of praise for coach Dickson who won his 700^th career win in a crucial victory against New Haven at the end of the regular season. More than that, Coach deserves credit for putting a team on the floor that actually played as a team, a rarity these days.* Click this link for a highlight video of the Bentley game, or watch the video below.

Winning a championship is an achievement that most players will never attain on any level. The Hawks won the league championship, and nothing can ever diminish the accomplishment. In my opinion, what they do in the NCAA DII tournament will just be gravy.  Still, I will be watching this Saturday night as they take on visiting Caldwell College in a packed Stoutenberg gym. Hopefully, it will be another thriller.

DSKG, Hawks.

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