Trump's Prospects

In a recent Wall Street Journal column, Daniel Henninger, editor and regular columnist, repeated the 2020 election analysis that has now become generally accepted. To paraphrase Jane Austen, if President Trump had only behaved in "a more gentleman like manner," he would not have turned off so many voters and lost the election. Or, in the words of a friend of mine, President Trump was a “turn-off, a narcissistic, demeaning bully, as well as an egotistical BS artist." To give my friend credit, he voted for Trump, because he believed the alternative was even worse. Other acquaintances went even further and regarded Trump with dislike bordering on overt hatred.

However, if President Trump’s personality turned off so many voters in 2020, how did he manage to get over 11 Million more votes than he did in 2016? In 2020 his 74 Million votes set a record for an incumbent President. Now that Donald Trump has officially entered the 2024 presidential race, it might be helpful to take a closer look at the figures of the last election.

First, here is a spreadsheet that compares the Trump vote totals in 2020 and 2016.  First are four key battleground states that gave Joe Biden the victory in 2020, then four "red" states, and then two different "blue" states. 

 

	2020	2016	Increase	Gain%
Arizona	1661686	1252401	409285	32.68%
Georgia	2461854	2069154	392700	18.98%
Pennsylvania	3377674	2970733	406941	13.70%
Wisconsin	1610184	1405284	204900	14.58%
Total	9111398	7697572	1413826	18.37%
Florida	5668731	4617881	1050850	22.76%
North Carolina	2758775	2362631	396144	16.77%
Ohio	3154834	2814005	340829	12.11%
Texas	5890347	4685047	1205300	25.73%
	17472687	14479564	2993123	20.67%
California	6006429	4483810	1522619	33.96%
CT	715291	673215	42076	6.25%
Total	74223369	62984828	11238541	17.84%

In the four battleground states that decided the election by the slimmest of margins, his vote total increased by over 18% with a whopping 33% increase in Arizona. How did he win easy victories in Florida and Ohio, states that were very close in 2016? Polls (who can believe them anymore?) showed those states in play in 2020 but President Trump won easily. In Ohio he gained over 340000 more votes, a 12% increase over 2016. In Florida his vote total was a Million more than it was in 2016, a gain of over 22%. Polls showed even Texas close in 2020 but Trump won going away. He increased his 2016 vote total there by 1.2 million votes, a 25% gain. 

Even in California, the bluest of states, President Trump gained over 1.5 Million votes, a 33% increase, despite the fact that his voters had to know that there was no chance of winning in California. More than anything else the California vote indicates an incredible level of enthusiasm for the candidate. In fact, the above figures show that despite four years of bitter opposition on the part of Democratic politicians, the main stream media, and even the the Federal government establishment, President Trump gained in popularity. Despite two failed impeachment attempts, official investigations, and incessant criticism, Trump gained in popularity.

I am not bringing these figures up to replay the last election, but to indicate that the figures are very important for the next one in 2024. Despite media claims, Trump supporters are not a small minority of right-wing nuts. Trump has entered the race and his supporters make up the bulk of the Republican party. He is the front runner and no Republican can win without his supporters. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida is an attractive candidate with a good record but he can not beat Trump for the Republican nomination. 

I was sorry to hear that Trump had decided to run in 2024, but not because I don't like him. Actually, I admire his abrasive manner, but I also believe he did an excellent job as President. Nevertheless, I think the office is too much for a man approaching 80, and that it might harm him and his family. Look at poor Joe Biden. But if Trump and DeSantis patch up their personal differences, DeSantis would be a perfect heir apparent. Voters could rest secure that even if old age took its toll on Trump, there would be a  capable successor, something that is notably lacking in the present administration.  Moreover, a Trump/De Santis Administration could  ensure Republican supremacy for not four, but twelve years.

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