Election Aftermath

     

Ohio Result 2012

I have learned my lesson and will no longer make predictions. Even though I do not regret my endorsement of Governor Romney, and still believe that my assessment of the two candidates was correct, I acknowledge that wishful thinking made me lose touch with some basic facts of American politics.

On election night all eyes were drawn to the map of the pivotal state of Ohio. There it was: a sea of red surrounding a few blue islands. The most prominent blue island was Cleveland in Cuyahoga county in the northwest corner of the state. The vote there was decisive. Next day I did a search for the 10 worst cities in the country and sure enough Cleveland was close to the top.

Cleveland has a population of about 430000 people but Forbes magazine placed it atop its list of most miserable cities in the country. Significant factors in the assessment were high unemployment, high taxes, and political corruption. Cleveland is part of Cuyahoga County where in the past 10 years more than 300 public officials have been convicted of crimes. A recent FBI investigation ensnared more than two dozen government employees on charges of bribery, fraud, and tax evasion.

Cleveland also has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country with thousands of abandoned homes. Apparently, it provided down payments through the Federal Afford-a Home program to people who could not afford the mortgage payments.

Reading about Cleveland brought to mind nearby Bridgeport in my home state of Connecticut. Looking at election returns it was clear that the Democrat political machine that has controlled the city for the past 50 years once again brought out the vote not only for President Obama but also for even the lowest functionary. For example, Christina Ayala young woman of 29 was elected to the State House of Representatives by a margin of about 3000 to 300 despite the fact that prior to the election, she had run a red light, caused an accident, and fled the scene. Her father is a prominent Bridgeport politico who now has virtually appointed two daughters to the State legislature.

Mireya Porto of Bridgeport surveys her car totaled in recent accident . 

Bridgeport even voted to restore an elected Board of Education after the state of Connecticut had stepped in a year ago to replace the notorious old board with an appointed one. Under the guise of restoring the Board to popular control, it has just been handed back to the party machine.

I write not out of sour grapes but to point out a basic political fact. For the past 50 years under virtual one-party rule. Bridgeport stands as a monument to the effects of one-party dominance. It has one of the worst school systems in the State. It has one of the highest murder rates. The city has been virtually bankrupt for the past few years since it requires about 150 million dollars of state aid each year to keep its failing schools going.

Why is it in the interest of the people in cities like Bridgeport and Cleveland to vote Democrat year after year? What do they hope to gain except for jobs and opportunities for a few anointed leaders? Even more puzzling is why Republican politicians so often fail to approach this substantial voting bloc and show them that they don’t have to accept the status quo.

I do not understand why every four years the Republican Party enters the race for the Presidency down by three of the most populous states in the country. They automatically concede California, New York and Illinois to the Democrats even though those states are social and economic basket cases. So many times in the campaign it seemed to me that even though Romney and Ryan had a good message, they were preaching to the choir. The people of Cleveland, Bridgeport, Miami, and Los Angeles were not even listening, or else could care less about budgets and tax issues.

In the future the Republican Party will have to show people in the American cities that they don’t have to tolerate poor schools, street crime, and urban decay. ###

Romney prediction

                        

The other day a friend asked me who I thought would win the upcoming Presidential election. He was shocked when I replied that I thought that Mitt Romney would win in a landslide. My guess was based on my gut feeling as well as on a recent poll in Connecticut, a traditional very blue state. The poll showed that President Obama had only an eight-percentage point lead in a state he carried by twenty-three percentage points in 2008. If Obama’s showing is so poor in usually reliable Connecticut, how will he win in the toss up states so vital to victory in November?

I believe that the poll numbers are not only a recognition of Obama’s record but also an indication that the Republicans now have an extremely attractive candidate whose apparent negatives will be perceived by most people as positives.

The 2008 election showed that American politics have entered the age of American Idol. Incredibly in the Democratic primaries a totally inexperienced but extremely attractive candidate triumphed over Hillary Clinton and the established leaders of the Democrat party. In the ensuing election Barack Obama easily overwhelmed an aging John McCain.

However, in Mitt Romney the Republicans have found an attractive candidate of their own to put up against a floundering Administration that seems totally unable to understand or deal with the country’s economic woes. I must admit that I am a political conservative and that I do like Mitt Romney but here are a list of qualities that I think any observer would agree with.

1. Romney has an attractive appearance. He appears youthful and energetic both in person and on TV. His wife and family are equally attractive. Again, in the age of American Idol this quality cannot be underestimated. Obama has no advantage here.

2. At the same time Romney appears to be intelligent, experienced, and quite capable of handling the demands of the Presidency. It would appear that he has been successful in practically everything he has set his hand to. Never mind the Olympics, he managed to get elected as a Republican governor of one of the bluest states in the country. Even the critics of his career at Bain Capitol would have to admit that he was successful there.

3. No one can doubt that he showed great skill he winning one of the most grueling primary campaigns in memory. Those who question his campaign strategy and tactics should give him credit for knowing what he is doing. He is no dope. His selection of Paul Ryan as running mate was a masterstroke. Despite their immediate criticism of Ryan, some Democrats are so concerned that I believe there will be an attempt to replace bumbling Vice-President Biden with Hillary Clinton. Moreover, the Romney campaign is and will be extremely well funded unlike the McCain disaster. Obama will not have the overwhelming financial advantage he had in 2008.

4. Speaking of money Romney is wealthy and makes no bones about it. Independent voters are wise enough to understand that a rich person has a great incentive to protect the rights of private property so basic to our country’s health and freedom. They also know that many Democrat politicians are equally wealthy. If the election is about class warfare and divisiveness, the Democrats will lose.

5. I don’t think his religion will be a factor. I know very little about the beliefs of Mormons, but I once overheard a man say that he never met a Mormon he didn’t like. He seems to be a devoted family man. Again, Obama has no advantage here.

I like to comment on what’s going on and don’t usually like to make predictions but I will go out on a limb here. Barring some unforeseen circumstance, I believe that Mitt Romney will win in a landslide big enough to give him a mandate to get the country moving again in the right direction. ###