Nature's Vaccine

Finally, my wife and I tested positive for Covid a couple of weeks before Christmas. She had attended a luncheon gathering of about 90 women on Monday, December 5. On Thursday she began to feel fatigue and had a slight fever. On Saturday, she tested positive and took to bed. That night I began to cough and also had a slight fever. On Monday, I took a home test but it was negative. Next day, I went to a drive in testing center and tested positive. Our doctor had already prescribed an anti-viral for her, and did so for me after my positive test.

I can’t say that our symptoms were more than mild and we never exhibited shortness of breath or any other life-threatening symptoms. We are both in our eighties and have been vaccinated twice with one booster. After a few days of self-imposed quarantine, we began to feel better. We were sick but did not die despite our advanced years. Over the Christmas holidays many people I knew contacted Covid and their cases proceeded much like ours.

 

Thank goodness we have an immune system that immediately springs into action when it detects an invading viral horde. Our mouths and nasal passages are full of warrior cells and bacteria without whose protection we would have long ago become extinct. 

 

When the coronavirus enters our system, the battle begins. Like any war it can cause great damage while it is waging. What we call symptoms--sniffles, coughing, fever, and fatigue-- are the results of the battle. We know by now that 99% of the time our immune system wins the battle. *

 

We also know that most of those who have died have been elderly. Some have suggested that our immune systems get weaker with age, but others have suggested that they get stronger after a lifetime of fighting various diseases, and that they produce an overly aggressive response to the invader that leads to inflammation, pneumonia, and death.

 

Last year I read an article that claimed that our immune system does not get weaker or stronger with age, but a factor that mitigates or controls the immune reaction does get weaker with age. It’s as if to counter the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we launch a preventative nuclear strike.

 

Some scientists have argued that controlling the inflammatory response of our immune system against the virus is the way to handle the pandemic. Vaccines do not prevent us from getting infected but are designed as a kind of early warning system for the immune system, and thus prevent a deadly overreaction. 

 

In the opinion of my scientific advisor, a master biologist, the Omicron variant might be a blessing in disguise with the potential to be much more effective than any vaccine or booster. He had this to say in an email exchange in which he calls it "Nature's Vaccine."

 

The vaccines are RNA based which cause us to produce a protein (Spike Protein) which the Covid virus uses to attach to our cells.  However, a slight change in the spike protein due to a virus mutation could render the vaccine useless as we are seeing with Omicron.  I call Omicron "nature's vaccine" because our immune system will mount a response not only to the spike protein but to other vulnerable parts of the virus. This should produce long lasting immunity not only to Omicron but to similar Covid viruses.  So far, baring comorbidities, the Omicron seems to be mild, in fact, probably even milder than the booster vaccine!  It is more contagious and therefore probably will lead to herd immunity.  I do not buy the idea that the reason Omicron is milder is due to the fact that people have been vaccinated. To me, it is milder as the virus is going through evolution where it wants to remain "alive" and the best way to do that is not to kill its host.

Viruses have been manipulating human as well as all of the other organisms' DNA since life began on this planet. This manipulation has fostered the evolution of life on the  planet. Who knows? Covid-19 survivors and their offspring may now possess protection against an even more potentially lethal, future virus. Also, humans have over 140,000 different varieties of viruses living in our digestive system whose main purpose is to control the bacterial population of our digestive system which in turn is vital for well-being. We could not possibly survive or evolve without viruses.

 

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*Note: So far there have been over 101,000,000 reported cases in the USA, and about 1.1 Million deaths from Covid. However, most authorities agree that many cases have not been reported. Even though some estimates have been higher, if we just multiply the number of cases by 2, the survival rate is over 99%.

Covid Studies 2022

 

Today's headline featured on the front page of the Connecticut Post, my local newspaper, read: “State lawmakers likely to extend mask rules.” An article followed indicating that the state legislature was about to approve the Governor’s mask mandates for another 60 days. 

 

Predictably the Governor, the legislators, and newspaper editors and writers are unaware of recent Covid scientific studies. Here is a list culled from recent articles I have read.

 

In a January 23 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Daniel Halperin, adjunct professor at the Gillings School of Gobal Public Health at the University of North Carolina noted the following studies.  

 

# 1: “A recent rigorous review by the University of Minnesota research group concludes: “we are well past the emergency phase of this pandemic, and it should be well-known by now that wearing cloth face coverings or surgical masks, universal or otherwise, has a very minor role to play….It is time to stop overselling their efficacy and unrealistic expectations about their ability to end the pandemic.

 

#2. The first large randomized community level study published last month in Science, found that while generic surgical masks provided a modest (about 10%) reduction in the risk of infection from Delta, cloth masks didn’t significantly reduce risk. Masks may be even less protective against an extremely contagious variant like Omicron….

 

Omicron doesn’t seriously threaten the vast majority of children; preliminary evidence  suggests much less risk for youth than from Delta. An increasing number of public-health experts…have called for ending school mask mandates soon.

 

#3. While a new CDC study finds that boosters substantially reduce the risk of infection as well as hospitalization from Omicron, countries like the U.K. and Israel that had widespread booster coverage before Omicron struck have also seen unprecedented surges in cases…. 

 

#4. The European Medicines Agency recently cautioned that repeated boosters may weaken the immune system over time.

 

#5. A recent Southern California study looked at more than 50,000 patients infected with the new variant. Not one required mechanical ventilation and only one died, compared with 14 deaths and 11 ventilations out of some 12,000 infected by the Delta variant during the same period….

 

#6. Health and Human Services Department data indicate the total number of patients in U.S. hospitals has hardly budged over the past six months….

 

#7. Christopher Murray of the Institute for Health Metrics  and Evaluation estimates in the Lancet that the number of Omicron deaths “seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries.”

 

In another op-ed published In the Wall Street Journal on 1/27/2022, Marty Makary, a Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine mentioned some other studies, including one conducted by himself and colleagues at Johns Hopkins. 

 

#1. Finally, last week the CDC released data from New York and California, which demonstrated natural immunity was 2.8 times as effective in preventing hospitalization and 3.3 to 4.7 times as effective in preventing Covid infection compared with vaccination….

 

#2. The National Institute of Health repeatedly has dismissed  natural immunity by arguing that its duration is unknown—then failing to conduct studies to answer the question. Because of the NIH’s inaction, my Johns Hopkins colleagues and I conducted the study. We found that among 295 unvaccinated people, who previously had Covid, antibodies were present in 99% of them up to nearly two years after infection. We also found that natural immunity from prior infection reduced the risk of infection  with the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of the two-dose Moderna vaccine against infection (not severe disease) declines to 61% against Delta and 16% against Omicron at six months, according to a recent Kaiser Southern California study. In general, Pfizer’s Covid vaccines have been less effective than Moderna’s.

 

To summarize. The wearing of masks has been largely ineffective in stopping Covid in its various forms. Even Dr. Fauci admitted as much when he advised people to wear two masks. Moreover, as has been pointed out on this blog many times, most people from the President on down handle and wear them improperly. Just look at basketball coaches wearing their masks on their chin when they yell at their players. The wearing of masks has become a superstition designed to ward off evil spirits.

 

If we really want to follow the science, we might also conclude that Omicron is a blessing in disguise. Many of my family members had the Omicron virus over the holidays and they all survived with only cold or flu like symptoms. The latest science now  indicates that they will now be immune not only to Omicron but to other viruses in the future.

 

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Nature's Vaccine

Did you know that there could be a trillion coronaviruses in one saliva droplet? That’s 1,000,000,000,000 viruses in just one droplet. Not only does the number of these infinitesimally tiny viruses boggle the imagination, but also, they are continually reproducing and mutating. 

 

Considering the size of the microscopic virus, its journey across six feet from one human being to another is equivalent to a human space flight not just to the edge of the solar system, or even the edge of our galaxy, but to the very extremity of the universe. Moreover, the journey is filled with many dangers such as the ultraviolet rays of the sun.

 

The journey is so long and so dangerous that it requires human assistance. We enable the virus by constantly touching our noses and mouths and introducing the invading army into our bodies. Masks could help in this regard but since most of us use them improperly, they have obviously not stopped the virus.

 

Thank goodness we have an immune system that immediately springs into action when it detects the invading horde. Our mouths and nasal passages are full of warrior cells and bacteria without whose protection we would have long ago become extinct. 

 

When the coronavirus enters our system, the battle begins. Like any war it can cause great damage while it is waging. What we call symptoms--sniffles, coughing, fever, and fatigue-- are the results of the battle. We know by now that 99% of the time our immune system wins the battle. *

 

We also know that most of those who have died have been elderly. Some have suggested that our immune systems get weaker with age, but others have suggested that they get stronger after a lifetime of fighting various diseases, and that they produce an overly aggressive response to the invader that leads to inflammation, pneumonia, and death.

 

Last year I read an article that claimed that our immune system does not get weaker or stronger with age, but a factor that mitigates or controls the immune reaction does get weaker with age. It’s as if to prevent a Russian threat to the Ukraine, we launch a preventative nuclear strike.

 

Some scientists have argued that controlling the inflammatory response of our immune system against the virus is the way to handle the pandemic. Vaccines do not prevent us from getting infected but are designed as a kind of early warning system for the immune system, and thus prevent a deadly overreaction. **

 

In the opinion of my scientific advisor, a master biologist, the Omicron variant might be a blessing in disguise with the potential to be much more effective than any vaccine or booster. He had this to say in a recent email exchange in which he calls it "Nature's Vaccine."

 

The vaccines are RNA based which cause us to produce a protein (Spike Protein) which the Covid virus uses to attach to our cells.  However, a slight change in the spike protein due to a virus mutation could render the vaccine useless as we are seeing with Omicron.  I call Omicron "nature's vaccine" because our immune system will mount a response not only to the spike protein but to other vulnerable parts of the virus. This should produce long lasting immunity not only to Omicron but to similar Covid viruses.  So far, baring comorbidities, the Omicron seems to be mild, in fact, probably even milder than the booster vaccine!  It is more contagious and therefore probably will lead to herd immunity.  I do not buy the idea that the reason Omicron is milder is due to the fact that people have been vaccinated. To me, it is milder as the virus is going through evolution where it wants to remain "alive" and the best way to do that is not to kill its host.

Viruses have been manipulating human as well as all of the other organisms' DNA since life began on this planet. This manipulation has fostered the evolution of life on the  planet. Who knows? Covid-19 survivors and their offspring may now possess protection against an even more potentially lethal, future virus. Also, humans have over 140,000 different varieties of viruses living in our digestive system whose main purpose is to control the bacterial population of our digestive system which in turn is vital for well-being. We could not possibly survive or evolve without viruses.

 

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*Note: As of January 1, 2022, there were over 55,000,000 reported case in the USA, and 847,041 deaths from Covid. Dividing deaths by cases leads to a survival rate of over 98%. However, most authorities agree that many cases have not been reported. Even though some estimates have been higher, if we just multiply the number of cases by 2, the survival rate is over 99%.

 

** Note: See the call for “focused protection” in the Great Barrington Declaration by a team of scientists and medical professionals that has drawn support from all over the world. Focused protection means concentrating on treating those most at risk, and not trying to keep the young and healthy from merely getting sick with symptoms that are rarely more serious than flu or the common cold. 

COVID deaths: Who's to Blame?

  

     

 

In the Presidential debates last year candidate Joe Biden blamed President Trump for the deaths of 225000 Americans during the Covid pandemic. To my mind it was the lowest point in Biden’s long lackluster career in politics. In fact, his charge, echoed by his running mate, Kamala Harris, and many other prominent Democrats, could easily make the top ten list of dirty, despicable campaign smears in American history.

 

Typically, neither Biden nor Harris blamed Democratic governors like New York’s now disgraced Andrew Cuomo for the high death rates in their states. Even now, they still refuse to blame Cuomo after it was revealed that his administration fudged the death figures to avoid looking bad. Nevertheless, Democratic New York and New Jersey still lead the nation in deaths per million. New Jersey is the leader with 3077 deaths per million, and New York is second with 2863. 

 

During 2020 I kept close count of the coronavirus figures and even ran a spread sheet that compared state by state results, as well as country by country results. I put a couple of posts on this blog to show that it would be hard to blame individual politicians. Other factors were more relevant. After election day, I stopped counting. Perhaps, I sensed that the figures would no longer matter.

 

Last week, the death toll from Covid climbed to over 700000 in this country. When President Biden took office in January 2021, the death toll was 400000. But who blames President Biden? Who blames the President for the recent surge that thankfully seems to be abating? The blame has been shifted to anti-vaxxers. Speaking of vaccines, neither Biden nor Harris has ever given President Trump any credit for the incredible and speedy work on the vaccines that has been labelled one of the marvels of medical history. Kamala Harris was the original anti-vaxxer when she insisted that she would never take a vaccine developed during the Trump administration.

 

Out of curiosity I took a look at the figures at the end of September. In the United States so far there have been about 43.3 Million people who have tested positive for the coronavirus. The death toll of about 711000 is 1.62% of those who have tested positive. The death rate is well below the world average of 2.05%, especially when you consider that the USA results help considerably to bring down the world average.

 

The USA figure also compares very well with countries like the United Kingdom and Italy with national health systems. In the UK there have been 7.8 Million cases and 136741 deaths for a death rate of 1.75%. In Italy there have been 4.9 Million reported cases and 130807 deaths for a death rate of 2.79%.

 

From the beginning scientists have argued that the number of people actually infected must be significantly higher than the reported cases. I have seen all sorts of multipliers but the latest seems to indicate that the number of cases should be multiplied by 2. In other words, at least 80 Million Americans have been infected and over 79 Million have survived. 

 

A columnist in my local newspaper recently reported on his bout with Covid. He had been vaccinated but thought little of it when he developed symptoms of a postnasal drip. However, he decided to get tested after spending time with a granddaughter who subsequently tested positive. Sure enough, he tested positive and even though his symptoms did not get worse, he made a brief trip to the hospital to get antibody treatment because he had certain co-morbidities. That was it. He quickly recovered and went about his business when doctors told him he could not infect anyone after 14 days. He became one of the more than 99% of Americans who survived Covid infection.

 

Of those who have not survived, the great majority were elderly or laden with co-morbidities like diabetes or obesity. Newspapers and other media can always feature exceptional anecdotes, but the data has always suggested that the young and healthy are not at any more risk than during a normal flu season.

 

In the past I have refrained from blaming anyone for what is a world-wide pandemic, but Joe Biden was wrong to blame President Trump back in 2020 and he is equally wrong in not giving him any credit now for initiating Operation Warp Speed that produced the vaccines in record time.   

 

 

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Coronavirus: Great Barrington Declaration

  

 

 

There has been an obvious spike in coronavirus cases the fall and it seems to be continuing as winter approaches. My home town of Fairfield, CT is no exception. Coronavirus cases practically disappeared from May to September but the weekly reports from our town government show a dramatic spike in October and November.

Interestingly, the spike has occurred mainly in young people of high school and college age. So far of the 2111 cases reported in town, 446 have been between the age of 10 and 19, and 553 between the age of 20 and 29. That is almost half of the town’s total. Fairfield has a population of about 60000 but it does have two large universities.

Significantly, none of these young people have died. In fact, Fairfield University reports that of its 599 cases, 589 have recovered so far. In fact, no one under the age of 40 has died in Fairfield, and only three have died under the age of 60. On the other hand, while there have been only 262 cases reported over the age of 80, 114 of those have resulted in death. Of those seniors who have died, over 90 percent were already in nursing homes or elder care facilities.

I think these figures are representative of what is going on all over the country. I also believe that they lend credence to the Great Barrington Declaration, a proposal put forward in October by three of the world’s leading epidemiologists, Dr. Martin Kuhldorff of Harvard, Dr. Sunetra Gupta of Oxford, and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford. They argued for a focused approach to dealing with the disease instead of a one size fits all approach. Here is an excerpt from the declaration.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

Obscured by the heated national election, the Great Barrington Declaration was also derided or ignored by the media, who while claiming always to follow science, can really turn on scientists who disagree with the mainstream narrative. Typically, instead of examining the scientific evidence, the media claimed that the authors of the Declaration had a right-wing political agenda.

The recent upsurge in cases is a sign another approach is needed. In a September 1 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Donald Luskin discussed the statistical research that his firm, TrendMacro, has been doing on the coronavirus since its inception.  He argued that the findings, although counter-intuitive, indicate that lockdowns have had little effect one way or another.

Experts stress the need for masks but only if used properly. How often do you see people touching their masks or wearing them only on their chin? My own observations indicate that 95% of people do not use or handle their masks properly. Most mask tests have been done in hospital settings where the masks are effective when used by trained medical personnel. Just the other day on a visit to my doctor, I asked his assistant how often she changed the mask that she had to wear all day. She said, “every three or four days.” 

It could be that the students at Fairfield and other universities are doing all of us a big favor. They contact the virus and recover. They get symptoms that in 99.9% of the cases range from cold to flu, but then develop an immunity that, according to the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, will protect us all.

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