Fake Polls

 

I have long been suspicious of polls of any kind, but especially of political polls. It’s not just that they can be mistaken, but that it seems obvious that in the age of computers and AI, polls can be manipulated to produce desired outcomes. Look at the disparity in Presidential favorability ratings in the chart on the left.

My suspicions were confirmed this week by an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal co-written by Harry Crane, a professor of statistics at Rutgers University, and Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University. They discussed “two examples of fraudulent polls from the current election cycle.” 

The first fabricated poll “prominently overstated the chances of a far-left candidate in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin Governor.” The second actually had an impact on the Michigan Democratic Senatorial primary. The fake poll numbers led one candidate to drop out of the race after it seemed hopeless to continue. The poll “led donations to dry up and left staffers demoralized.” As it turned out, Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Socialist candidate, barely won the Democratic primary after leading in some polls by 20 points. 

These two examples of fraudulent polling would seem to be just the tip of the iceberg. In the run up to the 2016 and 2020 Presidential races, polling numbers for Donald Trump were five points lower than the actual result. That’s well out of the margin of error. The 2020 polls were called the worst in 40 years. Polling results improved in 2024 but some still failed to call seven swing states for Trump. 

In each case the polling error would appear to have been a form of voter suppression. Democrat leaning polls were a way to discourage Trump supporters from voting. Democrats often complain about what they consider to be Republican voter suppression tactics like voter ID, but they and their pollster and media allies are masters of voter suppression.

The professors suggest that popular prediction betting sites might be better indicators of future election results, but I wonder if these sites could also be manipulated. After all, if a campaign has a million to spend on useless TV ads, maybe a bet on Kalshi might be more effective in swaying opinion. The last time I looked almost $14 Million had been bet on the Michigan Senatorial contest. This astounding figure makes you wonder if the affordability crisis is also a product of fake polls.

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Ukraine: History Lesson

Today, I re-post an article I wrote four years ago after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It provides some historical background to the conflict that still goes on today. The map to the left is especially interesting.

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My guess is that Russia’s Vladimir Putin regards the conflict in Ukraine as a Civil war, and not as an invasion of a neighboring country. Unlike others who guess at his motives, I don’t think he is a madman, or a Hitler out to conquer the world. In other words, I believe that for Putin Ukraine has been an integral part of Russia for over 500 years, and that the separation after the recent collapse of the Soviet empire was a dangerous mistake, politically, economically, and militarily.

Looking through an atlas of European history, I noticed that only about the time that Christopher Columbus discovered a New World does the name  Russia appear on the map. Before that it was called Muscovy since in the later Middle Ages, a people from the area of what is now Moscow began to travel, explore, and trade down the great Russian rivers that emanated from the nearby Valdai hills, and that eventually brought them to the Baltic, the Black, and Caspian seas.

The history of Russia under the Czars (Emperors) is a history of conflict with the tribes and peoples they encountered along these rivers, all of whom they eventually brought under subjugation. Eventually, they came up against more powerful opponents like the vast Kingdoms of Lithuania and Poland, as well as the mighty Ottoman or Turkish empire. Thumbing through the atlas I could see that by the nineteenth century  Lithuania and Poland had largely been absorbed by the Russian empire, and that the Ottoman empire was shrinking. 

On none of these maps does the word Ukraine appear. It and its people were always considered a part of the Russian empire. Although the Communist revolution of 1917 did not alter the imperial policy of the Czars, the Soviet leaders did create the fiction of an independent collection of popular republics, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Only then does Ukraine, the land of the Ukrainian people, appear on the map. Nevertheless, like all these Soviet republics, it was ruled with an iron hand by the Communist party leadership in Moscow.  The despotism of Joseph Stalin led to the starvation of millions of Ukrainians before WWII. After the war, Ukraine became a member of the UN but still remained subject to Russian laws and control.

In 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Empire, Ukraine shook off its legal ties with Russia, but its government still had close ties with Russia. It agreed to return the nuclear missiles placed there by the Soviet Union back to Russia in exchange for guarantees of its security. It established close economic ties with Russia and became a major importer of Russian oil and natural gas. 

I am not able to describe what happened in Ukraine after 1991 that led to the present conflict. I do know that there was graft and corruption as wealthy oligarchs profited from the breakup of Communist industries in both Russia and Ukraine. I also know that during the Obama administration, Vice-President Joe Biden was put in charge of US relations with Ukraine. Not only did his son land a lucrative position with a Ukrainian energy company, but also, Biden bragged about holding up a huge aid package to Ukraine until its government removed a prosecutor investigating corruption, an interference in another country’s affairs that seems far more impeachable than President Trump’s famous call to President Zelensky. *

In any event, during the Obama administration Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to reclaim some territory given up in the 1991 agreement. He was quiet during the Trump administration but shortly after President Biden declared in 2021 that he would welcome Ukraine’s admission into NATO, Putin launched the current military invasion. It seems obvious today that Ukrainian independence had become a more and more bitter pill for Putin to swallow. 

As noted above I believe that Putin regards the current conflict as a Civil war, and, as such, it is no one else’s business. I am reminded of our own Civil War. In 1860 the election of Abraham Lincoln led the Southern states to secede from the Union almost immediately upon his inauguration. Lincoln raised a large army, not to abolish slavery, but to quell a rebellion and bring the seceding states back into the Union. He and his advisors must have thought it would be a brief conflict, but the war turned out to be a long, drawn out affair with over 650,000  casualties. 

I wonder whether Lincoln, if he  could have foreseen the death and destruction, might have allowed the South to secede. Looking back, we can see that time and technology would have put an end to slavery in a few years. Rather than creating a more perfect union, the war only inflamed and prolonged sectional animosities.

I believe that Vladimir Putin has made a great mistake in attempting to regain the Ukraine for Russia. Even if he wins the war, the death and devastation will be enormous. He may conquer the country, but he will never gain the friendship and loyalty of the conquered people.  Time and technology could eventually have created a working relationship between Russia and Ukraine, Russia’s best customer. Why bomb your best customer?

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* Back in 2022 I wrote that "I am still waiting for the book that will examine the role of Vice-President Biden in the affairs of Ukraine during the administration of President Obama." To my knowledge, it has still not appeared.

An Old Man's Poem

I read J.R.R. Tolkien's Lord of the Rings trilogy when I was a young man over 60 tears ago. I saw the three film adaptations when they first came out, and am now re-watching them with my 17 year old grandson. We are halfway through, and I have been inspired to reread the trilogy. I have almost finished the first volume, The Fellowship of the Ring, and in the process read this poem that so much evokes the thoughts of an 87 year old man. 

 

I sit beside the fire and think

of all that I have seen,

Of meadow-flowers and butterflies

in summers that have been;

 

Of yellow leaves and gossamer

in autumn that there were,

with morning mist and silver sun

and wind upon my hair.

 

I sit beside the fire and think

of how the world will be

when winter comes without a spring

that I shall ever see.

 

For still there are so many things

that I have never seen:

in every wood and every spring

there is a different green.

 

I sit beside the fire and think

of people long ago,

and people who will see a world

that I shall never know.

 

But all the while I sit and think

of times there were before,

I listen for returning feet

and voices at the door.

 

J.R.R. Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring

Being the First Part of The Lord of the Rings

Here is a link to a piano solo of September Song with lyrics that express a similar sentiment. 

Greta Garbo: Ninotchka

 

 

Many film critics and historians regard 1939 as the Annus Mirabilis or greatest year of American film. In that year Hollywood produced Gone with the Wind which swept practically all the Academy Awards; The Wizard of Oz with Judy Garland in an iconic role; Stagecoach which made John Wayne a star; and Frank Capra’s Mr. Smith Goes to Washington. Worthy to be included in this pantheon is Ninotchka, a charming comedy directed by Ernst Lubitsch, and starring the great Greta Garbo.

Garbo had come to America from Sweden in the 1920s and became an immediate silent film sensation. When “talkies” arrived, she made the transition with ease, despite her accent, in Anna Christie. Film publicists merely relied on two words: “Garbo talks!” Her first words were “Give me a whiskey” spoken to a waiter in a dingy waterfront bar.  She went on to star in dramatic blockbusters Grand Hotel, Mata Hari, Queen Christina, Camille, and Anna Karenina. Ninotchka, however, would be her first attempt at comedy. This time publicists again used only two words to hail the film: “Garbo Laughs.”

Garbo plays a frowning, no-nonsense Soviet agent sent to Paris to complete the sale of jewels confiscated by the Communist regime to raise funds for the faltering Russian economy. Actually, she is sent to take over the job from three bumbling Soviet bureaucrats who had quickly become corrupted by the charms and luxury of Paris. It turns out that the jewels were formerly the property of a Russian Grand Duchess living in exile in Paris, and whose lover is a French nobleman, played by Melvyn Douglas, obviously a “kept” man who will eventually fall for Garbo. 

Communism was still enjoying a springtime in Hollywood in 1939. Despite Stalin’s show trials and purges, and his recent non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany, many in the film industry still regarded Communism as the wave of the future, the solution of America’s problems, and the savior of the downtrodden and oppressed. 

Nevertheless, director Ernest Lubitsch, a German émigré, and the film’s writers which included Billy Wilder, another German émigré, continually poked fun at the failures of the Soviet system. At one point, Garbo even refers to Stalin’s show trials: “There will be fewer Russians, but better ones.” Compared to Paris, Moscow is drab, cold, and dreary. However, despite the political satire, this film is really a love story and Garbo plays it beautifully.  

She initially appears at the train station wearing a drab Soviet outfit most likely designed by Adrian, her favorite costume designer.  During the film she brilliantly transforms herself into a beautiful woman falling in love not only with Paris but also with Leon, the French Count.

In one famous scene set in a neighborhood café he tries to make her laugh by telling one lame joke after another, but she sees nothing funny. Only when he gives up and falls to the floor after leaning too far back in his chair does she break out into prolonged laughter along with the other patrons. He joins in and the ice is broken. She is a woman.

Later, he takes her to a fancy nightclub. She has shed her Soviet attire and wears an evening gown. He introduces her to champagne, something she thought was only used to launch warships, and we see her slowly get high and then outright drunk. She plays it beautifully as she goes through the various stages of inebriation. Finally, he takes her back to her hotel room where she collapses. Later, we discover that he just put her to bed and left her sleeping. He is in love with her and would never take advantage of her. That was the way a man was supposed to act in those days, and that is one of the reasons why films like Ninotchka are part of Hollywood’s Golden Age.

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Note: click on this link for a brief clip from the film.