Coronavirus Survivors

Coronavirus Survivors

Let’s look at the coronavirus figures this year in the USA.

The population of the country is about 328 Million. So far about 7.2 million of us (2.3%) have been tested. Practically all of the tests have been done on people with symptoms but only about 1.2 Million (16%) have tested positive. The other 84% had some other reason for their symptoms. Of those who have tested positive 72284 have died, a death rate of about 6%. 

On the other side of the coin, 94% of those who tested positive, over 1.1 Million people, have survived the infection so far.

But wait a minute.

Scientific researchers tell us that the number of those testing positive must be multiplied to include those who have or had symptoms, ranging from negligible to severe, but have not reported them.  I have seen estimates that suggest that the number of positive cases must be multiplied by anywhere from 3 to 100 times the number of confirmed cases. Recent evidence from New York indicates that the actual multiplier is about 22.

In that case the number of people infected by the virus would be about 26.5 Million (1204000 x 22). The number of actual deaths (72804) represents less than one tenth of one percent of those infected. Looking at it another way, over 26 Million people, 99.7 percent of those infected, have so far survived.

 Cases                 1204000 x 22 =            26488000 infected

Deaths:                  72284 or 6%                    72284 or .2729%

Survivors:           1131716 or 84%            26415716 or .9973%

The U.S. health care systems seems to be doing a remarkably good job. As noted above the number of those who have died (72000) divided by the number of reported cases (1204000) is 6%. In the United Kingdom, the rate is over 15% (29500/196000), and in Italy the rate is 13.8% (29315/213013).  

Nevertheless, although the increase in the number of deaths is slowing, 72000 still beats what we have experienced during normal winter flu seasons. Perhaps the virus is more virulent than others but there could be other factors involved.

In the United States, a country of about 328 Million people, the death rate has been increasing over the past few years even before the coronavirus epidemic. Every year, about 2.5 Million people die in this country, less than 1% of the total population. In 2016 .008475 percent of the population died; in 2017 it was .00858 percent; and in 2018 .008685 percent. The reason for the increase is obviously demographic. The population of the country is aging and the so-called baby boomers are dying out.

I was born in 1939 and technically not a baby boomer, but I have been a witness to the phenomenon for most of my life. Despite the natural tendency of humans to complain, the baby boomers have been the longest lived, the most prosperous, and the most fortunate generation in the history of the world. But now that the eldest of them are 75, the number of deaths in this country must inevitably increase over the next few years. 

Great advances in technology, nutrition, and medicine have kept us alive so that the life expectancy in this country has reached an average of 78.6 years, much higher than it was back in 1945. 

Nevertheless, as the saying goes, “everybody dies.” In 2017, 647000 died of heart disease, and 600000 died of cancer, the two greatest killers.  Chronic lower respiratory tract disease caused about 160000 deaths while strokes claimed another 146000. Alzheimer’s, another malady of the elderly, claimed about 120000 lives, and diabetes was responsible for 84000. Finally, 57000 died of flu and pneumonia. 

In the current crisis, the elderly, especially those with other problems like hypertension, diabetes, and dementia have been particularly vulnerable. For some reason, our immune systems overreact to the virus and cause inflammation and eventually pneumonia.  Thus, the reason for the ventilators. 

In Connecticut it has been reported that more than 50% of the 2556 victims have been elderly residents of nursing homes. In my own town here in Connecticut there have been 423 people who have tested positive for the virus, and 72 have died. Of the 72, 86% were residents of nursing homes. I am not blaming nursing homes, hospitals, or the people who serve in the health care system in this country. The very great majority of their patients have survived. 

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