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| Dr. Marcus Zervos |
The impact of the coronavirus has been dramatically different in the four most populous states in the USA. Here are figures as of July 12 showing the number of reported cases and deaths, as well as the percentage of deaths to reported cases. I also include the number of deaths per Million in each state.
Cases Deaths Death% Death/1M
California: 320000 7030 2.20% 178
Texas: 259000 3228 1.25% 111
Florida: 255000 4197 1.65% 195
New York: 427000 32393 7.59% 1665
It is obvious that New York, the fourth most populous state, has been hit the hardest so far. Deaths exceed the combined total of the three largest states. The death rate per million is about 10X that of the other three states. Only neighboring New Jersey exceeds New York with a death rate of 1757 per million. Even tiny Connecticut, the other state in the tristate area, had the third highest death rate in the country at 1220 per million.
Recently, however, the trend seems to have reversed. The coronavirus has practically disappeared in the tristate area while headlines indicate record numbers of new cases in the sunshine states. Before trying to explain the spike in numbers in the sunshine states, we should try to understand what happened in New York and its neighbors.
From the first onslaught of the coronavirus medical researchers have warned that there were many more people infected than reported. I have seen estimates (guesses?) that we should multiply the number of reported cases by anywhere from 3 to 100 to get the actual number. As the virus spread over the past few months, the latest estimates are anywhere from 22 to 28.
In the United States so far there have been 3.248 Million reported cases. If we multiply that figure by 25 we can estimate that over 80,000,000 Americans have been infected. Since there have been 137,429 deaths so far, we can say that 99.9% of those infected have survived.
My scientific advisor suggests that by now New York and it neighbors have achieved a kind of herd immunity due to the severity of the early onslaught. Even protestors and looters running amok and un-masked in the streets of New York City have not led to a spike in coronavirus cases. I have been tracking the coronavirus in Great Britain and Italy since March because the virus hit them before us, and hit them harder. Recent reports indicate that the virus has for all events and purposes disappeared in those two countries.
I recall that when I visited California in February the virus had just begun there but as can be seen from the figures it did not take hold there. My scientific advisor believes that sunshine producing Vitamin D was more important than lockdowns in high sunshine states in flattening the curve. Millions of people in California, Florida, and Texas were infected but their immune systems, fortified by Vitamin D, fought it off so that most did not even get tested for the virus.
Speaking of testing, in the beginning tests were only administered to people with symptoms like coughing, fever, and fatigue. Back in March and April only 15 % of those tested had the coronavirus. The other 85% had something else. Now tests are being conducted on anyone so that while the number of those testing positive has grown, only 6% of those tested in June have been positive.
The number of tests in the USA is approaching 40 Million. California with so few reported cases now leads the nation with over 5 Million tests. Obviously, most of these people who are now testing positive had the virus and have gotten over it. Moreover, they are now probably immune.
In an op-ed entitled “The Coronavirus Credibility Gap” that appeared in the Wall Street Journal on July 2, Dr. Joseph Ladapo, an Associate Professor at UCLA’s David Geffen School of Medicine, discussed immunity.
And while there is more to learn about immunity, there has not been a single confirmed case of reinfection among the 10 million cases of Covid-19 world-wide, according to a May report in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Until the data say otherwise, people who have recovered from Covid-19 should be exempt from restrictions.
In its last weekly report my home town of Fairfield, CT reported that only two cases of coronavirus have been reported in the past week, and that there has been only one coronavirus related death in the past month. Moreover, the state of Connecticut “currently has very low numbers of new cases and hospitalizations, as well as the lowest transmission rate in the country.”
In more good news a July 2 report from the Henry Ford Health System indicates that a new study shows the effectiveness of low-cost hydroxychloroquine in saving lives. Here is the headline:
DETROIT--Treatment with hydroxychloroquine cut the death rate significantly in sick patients hospitalized with COVID-19--and without heart-related side-effects, according to a new study published by the Henry Ford Health System.
I reproduce the news release below and you can judge for yourselves. Of course, those who opposed the treatment because of its endorsement by President Trump have already tried to poke holes in the study.
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In a large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals, the study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine. None of the patients had documented serious heart abnormalities; however, patients were monitored for a heart condition routinely pointed to as a reason to avoid the drug as a treatment for COVID-19.
The study was published today in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, the peer-reviewed, open-access online publication of the International Society of Infectious Diseases (ISID.org).
Patients treated with hydroxychloroquine at Henry Ford met specific protocol criteria as outlined by the hospital system’s Division of Infectious Diseases. The vast majority received the drug soon after admission; 82% within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours of admission. All patients in the study were 18 or over with a median age of 64 years; 51% were men and 56% African American.
“The findings have been highly analyzed and peer-reviewed,” said Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of Infectious Disease for Henry Ford Health System, who co-authored the study with Henry Ford epidemiologist Dr. Samia Arshad. “We attribute our findings that differ from other studies to early treatment, and part of a combination of interventions that were done in supportive care of patients, including careful cardiac monitoring. Our dosing also differed from other studies not showing a benefit of the drug. And other studies are either not peer reviewed, have limited numbers of patients, different patient populations or other differences from our patients.”
Zervos said the potential for a surge in the fall or sooner, and infections continuing worldwide, show an urgency to identifying inexpensive and effective therapies and preventions.
“We’re glad to add to the scientific knowledge base on the role and how best to use therapies as we work around the world to provide insight,” he said. “Considered in the context of current studies on the use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19, our results suggest that the drug may have an important role to play in reducing COVID-19 mortality.”
The study also found those treated with azithromycin alone or a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin also fared slightly better than those not treated with the drugs, according to the Henry Ford data. The analysis found 22.4% of those treated only with azithromycin died, and 20.1% treated with a combination of azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 26.4% of patients dying who were not treated with either medication.
“Our analysis shows that using hydroxychloroquine helped saves lives,” said neurosurgeon Dr. Steven Kalkanis, CEO, Henry Ford Medical Group and Senior Vice President and Chief Academic Officer of Henry Ford Health System. “As doctors and scientists, we look to the data for insight. And the data here is clear that there was benefit to using the drug as a treatment for sick, hospitalized patients.”
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