Risk in Ukraine

                                             

I still remember playing the game of “Risk” as a child more than 60 years ago. It was, and still is, a popular board game where the object was to conquer the world. It could be played by two or more combatants who initially drew cards containing the names of different countries or regions. Players would plant one of their armies on each country they had picked and then would proceed to attack neighboring countries by rolling dice.

Success with the dice was important but it was still a game of strategy. You could be cautious or daring and each strategy had its risks. It seemed to me at the time that it was better to control small areas, protect your home base, and marshal your forces together rather than spreading yourself too thin over the whole board.

Russia, for example, was so large that it was divided up into a number of regions with strange sounding names. Controlling that vast area was virtually impossible until you had gained an overwhelming superiority over your opponent. I distinctly remember that one of those regions was called Ukraine. It was completely land-locked and surrounded by a host of countries from which it could be easily attacked.

Today, I find it hard to believe that the Wall Street Journal, my favorite newspaper, is beating the drums for a very aggressive US posture on the Ukraine. It seems that not a day goes by without an editorial or an op-ed calling for the US to get involved in the Ukraine.  What kind of madness is this? The Ukraine is a next-door neighbor to Russia and we are about 6000 miles away. The Ukraine became an independent country with the break up of the Soviet Union only a short time ago.  Historically, it has always been dominated by its powerful neighbor to the East.

Nevertheless, ever since it became an independent republic NATO and the European Union have been trying to incorporate the Ukraine into their orbit for what reason I cannot say. Both we and the Europeans have been thumbing their noses at the Russians and literally forcing them to take action. The Wall Street Journal always applauds when two companies bid against each other to acquire another company. Yet, when Russia outbid the Europeans for the Ukraine and its assets, the Journal cried foul.

Now, the Journal and others demonize Vladimir Putin and call him a dictator. Yet since when have we opposed dictators, even those near our doorstep? We have allowed a brutal dictatorship in Cuba for over 60 years, and we will do nothing to topple the one that has ruled and ruined Venezuela for over a decade. We support practically every dictator on the continent of Africa.

Despite media attacks on Putin it would appear that both Russians and Ukrainians today enjoy a greater degree of freedom than at any time over the past 100 years. Recently former chess champion and political commentator Gary Kasparov wrote that the way to punish Putin was to threaten the investments of Russian millionaires in the West. Wealthy Russians did not buy luxury homes in New York and San Francisco during the Stalinist era.

In another recent Journal op-ed Matthew Kaminski argued that the recent revolution in the Ukraine created an environment that was an embarrassment to the Russian dictator. He mentioned new Ukrainian leaders who wait on line like everyone else at airports, who take the subway to work, or who stand in line in the government cafeteria. Kaminski contrasted such leaders with those in repressive Russia, but when he returns home from Kiev, he will be hard pressed to find any American politicians flying economy or taking the subway to work. Is President Obama a dictator because he flies in luxury aboard Air Force One? I doubt if ultra liberal mayor Di Blasio takes the subway to work each day.

At about the same time I was playing “Risk” as a boy President Eisenhower warned against the military industrial complex in this Nation and also argued that this country should never get involved in a land war on the continent of Asia. We have repeatedly ignored this advice to our great harm. Now we are sending planes and war ships into Lithuania and the Baltic Sea right into Russia’s front yard.  This could be far more serious than the mess we have created in Afghanistan where all we had to deal with was neighboring Pakistan.

We cannot and should not be the world’s policeman. When we have tried we have often done more harm than good. We deposed a dictator in Iraq but does anyone know how many Iraqi lives were lost in the process? You could even argue that despite their obvious political differences, our last two Presidents have de-stabilized the entire Middle East. Do we want to do the same in the great borderland between Europe and Asia?  After all, what is NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, doing in the Ukraine? Any child looking at a “Risk” board would see that the Ukraine is far from the North Atlantic.

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State of the Union 2014

In tonight’s State of the Union message President Obama is expected to focus on income inequality, something that he has already indicated will be the signature issue of his second term. More specifically, he will probably paint a picture of dramatically increasing inequality between the rich and poor in the Nation. 

This is a powerful political message even though, if true, it is an indictment of his own five years in office. However, is increasing income inequality based on fact or is it based on flawed and misleading government statistics? How does anyone know what are the incomes of 300 million Americans? It would appear that there are two sources. First, there are figures compiled by the Census Bureau that appear in the annual Current Population Survey, or CPS. These figures represent estimates based on census questions. The second source would come from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and are based on the total of all individual income tax returns.

Not surprisingly, these sources can yield very different results and be subject to much interpretation or spin depending on one’s point of view. Just last week the Wall St. Journal published an article by two former high officials in the Social Security System. The opinion page article, “Retirees Aren’t Headed for the Poor House”, showed an incredible difference in the CPS and IRS figures on retirement income.

For example, in the year 2008 the CPS reported that retirees took  $5.6 billion dollars out of their IRAs. Yet, in that same year retirees reported to the IRS that they took $111 billion dollars out of their IRAs.  In that same year retirees showed $222 billion in pension and annuity income according to the CPS but actually reported $457 billion to the IRS. That is a huge disparity.

What explains the difference? The CPS only considers retirement income received on a regular periodic basis but fails to include as-needed, lump sum withdrawals from IRAs and 401ks. The IRS figures are much more accurate but inevitably politicians and pundits will choose to rely on the Census Bureau figures. Already Democrat Senators Tom Harkin of Iowa and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts are proposing legislation to increase Social Security payments across the board for all seniors.

Both senators are also pushing the need for a new government run retirement savings plan based on CPS under-reporting of American participation in retirement plans. CPS figures claim that only half of Americans are offered retirement plans by their employers but the authors of the WSJ article cite a 2011 Social Security study that indicated that 72% of all workers were offered retirement plans by their employer, and that the number increased to 84% for firms with more than 100 employees.

I am afraid that the President’s claim of increasing income inequality in this country will be based on equally flawed figures that he and others will use to advance their own political agenda. What could be more popular issue in this year’s congressional elections than an increase in Social Security benefits? Below here are some figures that measure the median incomes of various income groups.

In the year 2000 the median income for the bottom 10% was $13398. By the year 2008 it had dropped to $12315 and in 2010, two years into the President’s first administration, it dropped to $11904. The median income for the whole country in 2000 was $53164. Median means that half the taxpayers in the country reported less and half reported more. By 2008, the income of those in the 50% percentile had dropped to $50939 and by 2010 it had dropped again to $49495. Finally, for those in the top 10% the median income in 2000 was $141805. By 2008 it had dropped to $140050, and then in 2010 it had dropped again to $138923. Even the top 5% has experienced a similar decline.

These figures do not tell the whole story and will require further discussion in future posts but it would appear that while there is income inequality in this country, it is not increasing at an alarming rate. There are problems in the country today but if the President and his advisors do not understand the problem, and base their solutions on false statistics, they will not be part of the solution.

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Martin Luther King's Dream

Today is Martin Luther King Day, a National Holiday. All government offices will be closed today in honor of Dr. King and his pioneering role in the civil rights movement back in the 1960s. This is a unique holiday since he is the only man or woman to be honored with his own day anymore. Great Presidents like Washington and Lincoln have lost their individual holiday status and are now lumped together next month on President’s day. Poor Christopher Columbus has also slipped into virtual oblivion in deference to political correctness.

If Dr. King were alive today, I believe that he would be shocked to see how his famous dream has been turned into a nightmare. Recent statistics show that over 70% of black births now occur out of wedlock. This alarming figure has been rising every year since the time of Dr. King. The disintegration of the black family in America is perhaps the major reason for the fact that over 70% of the prison population today is black. Of that number the great majority would appear to be young black males. Most of these will have grown up without a father.

Critics can cry racism but I believe that the failure of the dream lies elsewhere. The integration of America’s public schools was one of the key elements in the civil rights movement but integration had turned out to be a disaster for most of the blacks in this country. Recently, a columnist in the Connecticut Mirror, an online newspaper, cited studies that showed that practically every attempt to integrate Connecticut’s schools has not only failed but has actually made things worse.

Magnet schools have only drawn the best students with the most involved parents away from the other schools. Attempts to bus inner-city students into nearby suburban schools have also failed to meet expectations. Even though they admit failure, politicians and commentators can only suggest more of the same.

A favorite catch phrase of the civil rights movement was “ If your not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem.”  Today, it would appear that after years of failed experiments like the ones above, and the outlay of billions of dollars, that it would be better to say that the solution was the problem. Integration was the supposed solution offered by well-intentioned civil rights advocates, but it has actually turned out to be the problem. How did this happen?

I am old enough to have witnessed the civil rights movement and I will use the nearby city of Bridgeport, Connecticut as an example. Integrated in Bridgeport abolished neighborhood schools, and as a result it destroyed existing neighborhoods and communities.  Integration accelerated the already begun exodus of the white middle classes from Bridgeport into the nearby suburbs. At the same time, these people did not leave their jobs. They now lived outside the city but continued to hold their jobs as teachers, policemen, firemen, sanitation men, and other civil servants. Their unions even lobbied successfully to abolish laws that prohibited them from living outside the city.

As a result the jobs that other groups had used to advance into the middle class were not available to blacks in Bridgeport. More than two generations would pass before they began to be teachers, policemen, fireman, and civil servants in any significant number. Even if a student managed to finish high school what could they do to earn a living? Many turned to a life of crime, especially the drug trade. This is one of the factors behind the high percentage of blacks in American prisons.

 Others try athletics but we know that only a small minority get recruited by colleges, and that only a handful hit the pro jackpot. The other day a friend sent me an article from USA Today about a scandal at the prestigious University of North Carolina. At UNC football players were able to take classes in the African American studies program that required no class attendance, only the submission of a paper at the end of class. These were pretty obviously phony courses created especially for black football players. Heads have rolled and Julius Nyang’oro, the head of the program, is under investigation. Other studies have shown that black athletes are reading at below eighth grade levels at many colleges across the country.***

So, it turns out that the integration of American schools did not usher in an educational utopia. After fifty years advocates admit that despite all their efforts and reforms, segregation has not been eliminated. Moreover, it is clear that integration has done little to improve education itself. In fact, it appears as if integration had more to do with social engineering than with education. Can it be that integration was the “problem” and not the “solution”?

The last fifty years have seen the disintegration of the black family; an incredibly high out of wedlock birth rate, jails filed with young black criminals, and an educational system whose reforms have gone sour despite good intentions. Martin Luther King could never have imagined that his dream would have turned out this way.

***Here is a quote from the USA Today article.

"More than 50 classes offered by the African Studies department, and very popular with athletes, appear not to have actually existed. Some of these courses listed instructors who had not 'supervised the course and graded the work.' and others 'were taught irregularly'...UNC's chancellor and football coach lost their jobs. the African studies department chair...is under indictment."

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Hall of Shame

                                             

This time of year usually features all kinds of award shows. There are the Oscars, the Emmys, the Globes and others where entertainment people appear dressed to the nines to pay each other on the back. Major League Baseball has just conducted its annual voting for its own Hall of Fame. In this spirit I would like to inaugurate a new feature on the Weekly Bystander called the “Bystander Hall of Shame.” We will begin the nomination process this month and continue throughout the year. The new year has already produced some good candidates.

New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, tops the list so far this month with the now famous “bridgegate” scandal. Although he has apologized profusely for the political decision that caused massive traffic jams at the entrance to the George Washington Bridge in Fort Lee, New Jersey, he insists that he knew nothing about the decision of his underlings to punish the Fort Lee Mayor for his failure to endorse Christie.

A couple of aides have been dismissed and Governor Christie can only hope that his run for the Presidency has not been damaged too badly. Despite his apology the Governor still deserves nomination to the Hall of Shame. The deliberate traffic jams did last four days and occurred four months ago. It took him that long to realize that something was wrong. Also, he was the one who appointed the nefarious aides who have now been thrown under the bus. He must have hired them for a purpose. It is hard to imagine that the Governor’s aides would have had the authority to direct the New Jersey transportation authorites to set up phony construction sites in Fort Lee without knowing that the Governor would have no objection.

Perennial candidate Hillary Clinton earns the second nomination this year for the revelation in a new book by Robert Gates, the former head of the Defense Department, that she opposed the 2008 military surge in Iraq only to head off the candidacy of Barack Obama before the Iowa primaries. This is not as bad as her Benghazi blunders of 2012 and 2013 but we will see what develops.

The third nomination goes to the group of more than 100 New York City policemen and firemen who managed to scam the City with false disability pension claims. A disability pension will not only often result in higher benefits but it also has the advantage of being free from Federal income taxes. New York pensions are already free of state and local income tax. These nominees apparently employed two octogenarian former state officials to show then how to make their fraudulent claims for largely psychological ailments. Some even had the gall to claim 911 trauma when they had been nowhere near the scene.

Senator Richard Blumenthal and Wife

Finally, another nomination goes to the Connecticut Post, the newspaper of Connecticut’s Fairfield county. The editorial page of the paper continually runs cartoons depicting Republicans as wealthy fat cats. However, last Sunday’s front page led with a story about the multi-millionaire status of Connecticut’s all Democrat Congressional deligation. Senator Richard Blumenthal led the list with a net worth of around 120 Million although he did explain that most belonged to his wife. He was followed by Rosa Delauro ($26 Million), Jim Himes (9 Million), and Elizabeth Esty (5.6 Million). I don’t complain about the wealth of these public servants. It is important to hold office to protect and enhance your wealth. They might earn a subsequent nomination for the fact that they will receive pensions and medical subsidies but for January the nomination to the Hall of Shame goes to the Connecticut Post for constantly portraying the Republicans as the party of the rich.

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