Stock Market 2025

 

    

 

 

I write this post over the weekend after two days of alarming declines in the stock market apparently due to President Trump’s imposition of new tariffs. I do not know whether the market will continue to sink on Monday or rebound. But I thought it might be a good idea to look at recent market performance and perhaps draw some conclusions. Let’s take a look at some specific examples of what has happened over the past five days, over the past 12 months, and over the past five years.

 

Here are the figures for the three most popular market averages over the past five days, the past 12 months, and over the past five years. 

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 8% over the past 5 days, and down 1% over the past year. Despite the recent decline, it is up 82% over the past 5 years, an average of about 16% per year. Not bad! The broader Standard and Poor 500 index is down about 9% over the past 5 days, and down 1% over the past year. Despite the recent decline, it is up 103% over the past 5 years, an average of over 20% per year. The tech heavy NASDAQ index is down about 10% over the past 5 days, and down 3% over the past year. However, it is still up 111% over the past 5 years, even better than the other averages.

 

Here are performance figures of some individual stocks.

 

Apple is down about 14% over the past 5 days, but still up 14% over the past year. Over the past 5 years it is up 212%, an average of over 40% per year.

 

Retailer Costco is down only 1% over the past 5 days, but still up 30% over the past year. Over the past 5 years it is up 218%, an average of over 40% per year. Retailer Walmart is down only 2% over the past 5 days, but still up 40% over the past year. Over the past 5 years it is up 109%, an average of about 20% per year.

 

Tech giant NVIDIA is down 14% over the past 5 days, but still up 10% over the past year. Over the past 5 years it is up a whopping 1447%, an average of almost 300% per year. Tesla, despite the systematic campaign against Elon Musk, is down only 9% over the past 5 days, but still up 40% over the past year. Over the past 5 years it is up 648%, an average of over 120% per year.

 

Major utility Southern Company is down 2% over the past 5 days, but still up 27% over the past year. Over the past 5 years it is up a respectable 77% an average of about 15% per year, not bad for a utility. ATT (T) is down only 5% over the past 5 days, but still up 52% over the past year. However, it is only up 28% in the past five years, an average of about 5% per year. In the past year “T” has made a remarkable comeback.

 

It would appear that ordinary people whose 401k or IRA is invested in index funds or individual stocks are still way ahead of the game whether they are approaching retirement or not. The biggest mistake that people can make is to change their investment strategy as they approach retirement. These days most people’s retirement years will be longer than their working years. Investments for retirement should be long term since you will need the income for decades. 

 

For those worried about tariffs and inflation, at least the price of stocks has gone down in the past week. As I said at the outset of this post, I do not know what will happen next week in the market, but sooner or later the computers programmed to buy and sell at certain levels will start buying as prices decline, just as they have been selling and taking profits after five years of gains.

 

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DOGE Team Interview

No matter what you think of President Trump and Elon Musk, you owe it to yourself to view last week's interview of Elon Musk and his DOGE team by Bret Baier on Special Report, his daily evening news show on Fox News. Here is a link to the interview that was broadcast in two segments. Even if you just listen to the first 15 minutes, you will find it to be a real eye opening on Musk and his team. 

Here is just one example of what you will find. The Small Business administration has given out about $300,000,000 in loans to children under the age of 11. One loan for $100,000 even went to a nine-month- old infant. In addition, it has given out another $300,000,000 to people over the age of 120. Obviously, the government could not protect itself from fraudsters who steal the Social Security numbers of newborns, or deceased seniors and use them to steal money that could have been used for legitimate purposes. 

It is not that the government officials who approved these loans were corrupt, but the systems and procedures they used were antiquated and inefficient. If the Small Business administration's computers had been able to check the birthdates available on Social Security computers, the fraud could not have happened. Of course, these loans will never be paid back. When the infant enters adulthood, it will find a major blot on its credit rating.

These SBA loans are just a small part of what the DOGE team has found in just a couple of months. Musk claims that he hopes to eliminate a Trillion dollars 0f waste and fraud, and he has assembled what appears to be an extremely competent team. If they can reduce fraud, and eliminate wasteful spending, they will perform a great service. Just the other day, a Wall Street Journal investigation revealed that the Federal government had been regularly sending Medicaid reimbursements to more than one state for individuals who had moved. 

The interview also provided an insight into the type of people Musk has on his DOGE team. They are not nineteen-year-old whiz kids but experienced and talented business leaders and technocrats. One was the founder of AIR BNB, and another had taken leave from  five thriving businesses he owned in Texas to serve.  

It will be a shame if many refuse to watch this interview because they dislike Trump or Musk, or because it appeared on deplorable Fox News. As far as the latter is concerned, these people should be aware that Bret Baier has carved out a niche for himself on "Special Report." It occupies the 6:00 pm time slot and comes closer to the iconic news shows of the past than any other. Unlike the opinion shows on Fox and other cable news networks, it strives to be fair and balanced. It has become, for good reason, the highest rated news show on TV. Since the beginning of the year the Prime Minister of England, Emanuel Macron of France, and Ukraine's Zelensky have all been interviewed by Baier on Special Report. 

The interview with Musk and his Doge team is perhaps the best of the lot. It is worth 15 minutes of your time. Click on the link above or watch the video below.

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