Predictions 2025

                                             

January is the time of year when many pundits like to make predictions for the upcoming year. Shortly after I started the Weekly Bystander, I realized that it was foolish to make predictions. Most predictions are either just wishful thinking, or simply a call for the continuation of the current trend. 

Nevertheless, I would like to do some wishful thinking of my own for 2025. Today, I listened as President Trump's spelled out an ambitious agenda in his inaugural address. As he spoke I thought about the harsh realities that would face him in the next four years.

Trump seems remarkably fit and hearty for someone his age. Still, as time goes by it will be more and more apparent that he is a lame duck who cannot succeed himself. He has surrounded himself with a group of ambitious young people who inevitably will begin to jockey for party leadership.

He has the slimmest of margins in Congress where he cannot even count on unanimity in his own party. Democrats in Congress will obviously be even more obstructionist than ever. I believe that it will be very difficult to advance his domestic agenda through Congress. Like his Democrat predecessors he will have to govern by executive order and administrative action.

Even if his appointees to high office are approved by the Senate, they will be impeded and obstructed by a Federal bureaucracy that is more than 90% Democratic. This bureaucracy is relatively secure in their jobs. Elon Musk will not be able to treat them as if they were Tesla employees.

However, President Trump will have a freer hand in foreign affairs. It is interesting that in his remarks today he said that he wants to be remembered as a man of peace. One of the reasons I voted for Donald Trump in 2016 was his stated concern about the danger of nuclear war. I cannot find the exact source but I recall that when he was asked about the greatest issue facing the country, he put the threat of nuclear war at the top of the list. I do not recall whether any other candidate expressed a similar concern. Certainly, his first administration saw four years of relative peace in the world.

Of all the failures of the Biden administration, the greatest has been the failure of the outgoing President to appear as a champion of peace. For example, not only did his actions provoke the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also, they quashed a peace agreement reached by the warring parties early in the war.

Internationally, however, Trump has a freer hand. In his upcoming State of the Union address he could present himself as a champion of world peace and claim that his primary goal in the coming years will be to lessen tension all over the globe. 

Over a hundred years ago, World War I, a conflict sparked by the assassination of a leader in central Europe, eventually led to the slaughter of millions. Many even think that the aftermath of WWI led to the rise of totalitarian states with their horrible persecutions of their own people, and ultimately to the devastation of the Second World War.

There are many trouble spots in the world where a similar spark could ignite a nuclear exchange that would have unthinkable consequences for the whole world. The President could make the lessening of tensions his major issue in the coming year. Here are some examples.

First, some real collusion with Russia would be a very good idea. Russia does not have to be an enemy of Europe or the United States. It would be really beneficial if Russia was brought into working relationships with Europe and the USA that would be beneficial to all.

If Russia became the primary supplier of oil and natural gas for Europe, it would have little reason to aim intermediate range nuclear missiles at its customers in Europe. It would have every reason to treat its customers well. At the same time, Russia would receive a much needed revenue stream. 

As far as the USA is concerned it would be much better for us if Russia became a wealthy modern economy rather than a backward third world nation with so much of its GDP going to support a massive military. We don’t want to drive Putin’s back to the wall either economically or militarily. If we cut a deal with Russia, we could radically rethink the need for NATO, a military force that the Europeans don’t even want to support. 

A Russian deal could include a Ukraine deal. It is imperative to bring that war to an end. Both sides have much to gain by cutting a deal that would guarantee Ukrainian independence of both NATO and Russia. 

Second, the closing of a fair trade deal with China would not only benefit both sides economically, it might also lead the Chinese government to reconsider and reduce its provocative military build-up in the South China Sea. The last thing anyone wants is some trigger happy pilot on either side buzzing a rival warship.

We no longer have to fear Communist ideology in either Russia or China. It is true that both have authoritarian governments but their leaders seem much less interested in Communism than teachers and students in American colleges and universities.

Korea would also be a good place to cut a deal on behalf of peace. A peace treaty between North and South Korea would finally bring an end to the Korean War that began in 1950. It would be a great first step in reducing the enormous military weaponry already in place on both sides of the demilitarized zone. If all it takes to get North Korea’s leader to dismantle his nuclear program is the removal of American troops from the peninsula, I think it would be worth it. We should let the Korean people decide.

Finally, there is no greater tinder box in the world than the Middle East. American troops have been stationed there for over 20 years. Impossible as it might seem, I do think that deals could be cut there that would involve both Russia and Iran. If you look at a map, you will see that both of them have much more reason to be there than we do. After all, we don’t need the region’s oil anymore.

 If he presents himself a champion of peace, President Trump can rise above petty politics and secure his reputation forever.

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