Thursday, November 14, 2024

Election Analysis 2024

  

                  



Since former President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamela Harris in the 2024 Presidential election, I have read a number of analyses of the election results and all, whether Republican or Democrat, blame the Democrats for the defeat. Harris is blamed for not being a good candidate. President Joe Biden is blamed for not stepping down sooner. The Democratic party is blamed for being overly “woke” and out of touch with ordinary Americans.  Even the millions of people who voted for Trump are blamed for being racist, bigoted, and misogynistic.

However, I have not seen one analysis where Trump is given any credit for his remarkable victory. Even the conservative editorial writers and columnists at the Wall Street Journal cannot give an ounce of credit to Trump or his team. Indeed, throughout the long-drawn-out campaign, these commentators found it difficult to say even one good word about Trump. It is as if they feared alienating friends or colleagues in the industry. The editors of the WSJ consistently believed that Nikki Haley or anyone else were better candidates than Trump, and despite their losses in the primaries, would have been easy winners for the Republican party. 

In any contest, it is usually the superior player who wins.  Can it be that Trump was the superior player in 2024? Since Trump first entered the political arena in 2015, I have never seen such enthusiasm for a candidate. It grew as he demolished leading Republicans in the 2016 campaign, and then upset Hillary Clinton in the Presidential election. His controversial defeat in the 2020 election obviously did not diminish the enthusiasm of his millions of supporters and ultimately it carried him to victory this year. Without that enthusiastic base no Republican could have won. Was this enthusiasm based on nothing? Was it totally unreasonable?

I have talked with a number of Trump supporters over the years, and I can point to a few reasons for his popularity. In the first place, from the moment he entered politics, it was clear that Trump was not a politician. Perhaps this is the reason why so many in the governing class despise and hate him. He was rich but he was not one of them. No one has ever accused him of being a politician. To put it in a positive way, he appears to his base as genuine, and not as a phony. He is incredibly rich and flaunts it, but still seems like a regular guy. 

I believe that his supporters also admire his courage. He showed a lot of courage in taking on the Republican establishment in 2015. As President I recall his seemingly innumerable press conferences where he took on the entire attacking press corps without benefit of teleprompter or staged questions. Compare his bravado to Biden and Harris who hardly ever held a press conference. 

Who can forget that moment in Butler, Pennsylvania when an assassin’s bullet came within an inch of taking his life. He could have stayed on the ground covered by Secret Service agents, but something in this 78-year-old man made him rise and shake a defiant fist in the air. 

Maybe, courage has something to do with the fact that Trump might be the hardest political campaigner in history. I know he gave practically the same speech at every rally, but he was still out there night after night right till the last day of the campaign.

Trump should also be given some credit for his actual campaign. He obviously picked a team of very talented and capable people. Only after the election did we find out that the leader of the campaign was Susie Wiles. She led a campaign that won every battleground state, as well as the popular vote. The media totally overlooked her. They still don’t know how she did it.

 


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1 comment:

  1. David Brooks had a column which resonated with me. Trump respected the overlooked half of the population. I did not in my ignorance of them . Brooks called for a large dose of humility. I’m ashamed of being an educated elite living in a bubble.

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