Thursday, March 25, 2021

Faulty Election Analysis












In a recent Wall Street Journal column, Daniel Henninger, editor and regular columnist, repeated the 2020 election analysis that has now become generally accepted. To paraphrase Jane Austen, If President Trump had only behaved in "a more gentleman like manner," he would not have turned off so many voters and lost the election.

To put it in the words of a friend of mine, President Trump was a “turn-off, a narcissistic, demeaning bully,” as well as an egotistical BS artist. To give my friend credit, he voted for Trump, because he believed the alternative was even worse.

Other acquaintances went even further and regarded Trump with dislike bordering on overt hatred. I know devout Catholics, who like millions of others, disliked him so much that they voted for Joe Biden despite his avowed intention to repeal the ban on taxpayer funded abortions. For them, it was not a question of policy. Trump was evil incarnate.

However, if President Trump’s personality turned off so many voters in 2020, how did he manage to get over 10 Million more votes than he did in 2016? In 2020 his 74 Million votes set a record for an incumbent President.

How did he win easy victories in Florida and Ohio, states that were very close in 2016? Polls (who can believe them anymore?) showed those states in play in 2020 but President Trump won easily. In Ohio he gained over 300000 more votes, a 10% increase over 2016. In Florida his vote total was a Million more than it was in 2016, a gain of over 18%. Polls showed even Texas close in 2020 but Trump won going away. He increased his 2016 vote total there by 1.2 million votes, a whopping 20% gain. Are suburban housewives different in Ohio, Florida, and Texas?

Even in blue state bastions like California and New York, President Trump increased his vote count over 2016. Although he was overwhelmed in California, his vote total increased by 1.5 Million votes, a 25% increase over 2016. In New York over 300000 more voters turned out for him in 2020, a 13% increase.

Even in the battleground states that ultimately decided the election, President Trump had double digit increases in vote count from 2016. In Pennsylvania, where he lost by less than 12000 votes, his total was up by 12%. In Georgia he was up by 15% and in Wisconsin by 13%. In Arizona, which he lost by only 10000 votes, his vote total increased by over 400000, an incredible 25% over 2016.Those four key states cast over 18 Million votes, and Trump lost by a total of only 123000 votes.

Ultimately, I believe that President Trump lost the election not because he was nasty but because he was too nice to be an American politician. He did not understand just how ruthless and unprincipled you have to be to play the game.

During his term he named three Justices to the Supreme Court, but none were relatives, friends, cronies, or political operatives, a departure from the normal practice, especially among blue state Governors.

When it came to an Attorney General, he did not choose a relative as JFK did, or a political attack dog as President Obama did. He chose Judge Sessions who blindsided him by recusing himself from the Russia collusion affair. Then, he chose the highly respected William Barr whose vaunted integrity kept him from investigating the Biden family financial dealings in the Ukraine and China during an election year. After the election, Barr regretted that he would not have four more years to continue cleaning up the Justice department.

Speaking about the Justice department, things are getting back to normal. One of the first things President Biden did in office was to fire every assistant attorney general no matter what they were working on, or how qualified they were. Jobs had to be found for Democratic supporters who will never cross the President, or plot against him like officials did in the early days of the Trump administration. There will be no Rod Rosenstein in the Biden administration who will call for an independent council to investigate anything.

In his famous political treatise, The Prince, Niccolo Machiavelli claimed that it is better for a ruler to be feared than loved. Among his opponents, who actually feared President Trump? Certainly, Democrats from Nancy Pelosi on down never did. They could say and do the most outrageous things with no repercussions.

For example, the Trump administration granted a multi-billion-dollar contract to Connecticut’s Electric Boat company despite incessant criticism of the President by the state’s two Senators. Actually, local politicians took credit for the huge boost to the state’s economy, but neither they nor the Connecticut media gave the President any credit.

Throughout his tenure, the media incessantly criticized the President and even disrespected him to his face in his many press conferences, both formal and informal. People did not like the way President Trump behaved in his press conferences when he fought back against what appeared to be a pack of raging hounds. But now, things are back to normal. In two months President Biden has not held one press conference. Despite a fawning press, we are back to the canned teleprompter days of President Obama. If there ever is a press conference, the Biden administration has instructed reporters to submit questions in advance, a normal way for those in authority to ensure they look good.

I disagree with columnists like those at the Wall Street Journal whose personal dislike of President Trump obscured their judgment. One even admitted that she voted for a dead man rather than vote for either candidate. President Trump did not lose the election, the Democrats won it. How they won it, with the most lackluster candidate in memory, is a story that remains to be told.

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