Coronavirus Science or Blame

By the end of August, the number of reported coronavirus cases worldwide exceeded 25,000,000 and total deaths had reached 846961. In the USA the number of reported cases has reached 6,000,000 and deaths totaled 187232, about 22% of the worldwide total. Critics of President Trump blame him for the death toll in the USA which they say is excessive given the fact that we only have 4% of the world’s population.

 Nevertheless, if we look at the death toll in other industrialized countries we find they have fared about the same. In the USA 187232 deaths out of a population of 328 Million, is almost the same percentage as the United Kingdom, with 41586 deaths out of a population of 66 Million, and Italy with 35477 deaths out of a population of 60 Million. Actually in both the UK and Italy the relationship of those who have died to the number of reported cases is over 4 times the USA’s 3% figure. 

 Another way to look at the distribution of blame is to examine the various state results in the USA. If President Trump is to blame, why have there been such uneven results in the various states? For example, New York, the fourth most populous state, leads the nation with 33021 deaths, or 1697 deaths per million, while California, the most populous state, has only 12938 deaths or 327 per million, even after the July surge. Moreover, why did the coronavirus peak in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut in the Spring and come to a virtual halt thereafter? Why were states like California, Florida, and Texas spared in the beginning but then surge later on? How could President Trump be blamed for such disparate results?

 Despite terrible results in New York, Governor Cuomo is regarded as a hero by the media for his lockdown efforts. Yet, the lockdown efforts of Democratic Governor Newsome of California were just as severe but could not prevent the summer surge that effected his state. Is it really a matter of politics? Red states in the sunshine belt like Texas. and Florida still have numbers closer to California’s and far better than New York and New Jersey. 

 In a September 1 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Donald Luskin discussed the statistical research that his firm, TrendMacro, has been doing on the coronavirus since its inception. He argued that the findings, although counter-intuitive, indicate that lockdowns have had little effect and may have even caused more harm than good. 

 “The lesson is not that lockdowns made the spread of Covid-19 worse—although the raw evidence might suggest that—but that lockdowns probably didn’t help, and opening up didn’t hurt. This defies common sense. In theory, the spread of an infectious disease ought to be controllable by quarantine. Evidently not in practice, though we are aware of no researcher who understands why not… 

 But there’s no escaping the evidence that, at minimum, heavy lockdowns were no more effective than light ones, and that opening up a lot was no more harmful than opening up a little. So where’s the science that would justify the heavy lockdowns many public health officials are still demanding?” 

Where is the science? That is a good question. Let’s take a look at my home town of Fairfield, CT, a town of about 62000. As of last’s week’s report from the town’s First Selectwoman, there have been 751 reported cases of coronavirus and 141 deaths. Of those who have died 106 were over 80, 22 were over 70, and 13 were over 60. Only three deaths were recorded among those under age 60, and not one death was recorded for a school age child. Of those who died 92.4% were in elder care facilities. 

 In April when testing was done primarily on those with active symptoms, 40% of the tests had positive results. At the end of August with tests being done on practically anyone, only 1.2% were positive, and most of those were in nursing homes. In Fairfield county hospitalizations for the coronavirus peaked in April at around 2000 but between June and August they had declined dramatically to practically zero. 

 To be consistent if people in Fairfield and elsewhere want to blame President Trump for the coronavirus, shouldn’t they also credit him with its disappearance? Or if they want to credit Governor Lamont of Connecticut for his efforts to combat the virus, shouldn’t they also blame him for the deaths in the Spring when Connecticut racked up one of the highest death rates in the country? Things were so bad, the Governor even fired his health director, a black woman who is now planning to sue him. ###