Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Coronavirus FAQs


I have been using a spread sheet to track the progress of the coronavirus for over a month. Most of my information has come from the daily updates from Johns Hopkins University. Here is my own list of questions and answers. 


Q. How many people have been tested for the coronavirus in the US?
A. 4026000.
Q. How many of those tested had symptoms?
A. Practically all according to Dr. Deborah Birx.
Q. How many of the over 4 Million tested positive?
A. 787960 or 19.7%. The symptoms of the remaining 81.3% were caused by something else.
Q. How many of those tested positive have died as of April 21?
A. 42814 or 5.4%.

Q. Were there any other health issues among those who have died?


A. We do know that the great majority were elderly with other medical conditions. A New York study showed that a majority suffered from hypertension (high blood pressure). Other conditions were diabetes and dementia. 


Q. How many people have survived the coronavirus infection?


A. If we subtract the number of deaths (42518) from the number of positive cases (787960), we get about 745000 survivors so far. Published recovery rates obviously lag behind. However, medical researchers tell us that we must conclude that there are many more cases that have not been recorded. One model suggests that we should multiply actual cases by 3 which would mean that about 2.3 Million have survived. One health official stated that we should multiply actual cases by 100, a figure sometimes uses in estimating the number of people infected by the flu each year. If we multiply positive cases by 100, then over 78 Million people have been infected in the US, but only 42814 have died.  
Q. How does the death rate in the US compare with other countries?
A. in the United Kingdom 125856 people have tested positive and 16509 have died. 13% of those who tested positive have died. In Italy 181228 people have tested positive and 24114 or 13% have died.
Q. What are the leading causes of death in the USA.
A. We don’t have figures for 2020 but in 2019, heart disease (670000) and cancer (600000) were the leading causes of death. Chronic lower respiratory diseases took 160000 lives, and146000 died of strokes. Rounding out the top ten killers were accidents (170000), Alzheimers (121000), Diabetes (84000), Nephritis (50600), Flu and Pneumonia (55000), and Suicide (47000). 
Q. How rapidly is the coronavirus spreading in the US.
A. Over the past five weeks,  although cases and deaths continue to rise, the rate of increase has been dramatically slowing. Here are the figures.

March 18-24: Deaths increased by 958% and cases by 615%
March 25-31: Deaths increased by 305% and cases by 198%
April 1-7: Deaths increased by 169% and cases by 94%
April 8-15: Deaths increased by 84% and cases by 46%
April 16-24: Deaths increased by 63% and cases by 29%.


Q. What states lead the Nation in cases and deaths?
A. New York State leads the nation with over 242000 reported cases and 13869 deaths. New Jersey is in second place with 89000 cases and 4377 deaths followed by Massachusetts (40000 cases and 1809 deaths), and Pennsylvania with 34000 cases and 2348 deaths. California, the most populous state in the country, is only in fifth place with 34000 cases and only 1227 deaths. Interestingly, Florida (27000 cases and 823 deaths) and Texas (20000 cases and 820 deaths) seem to have been largely spared.
Q. Why are California and Florida, two of the most populous states with large proportions of senior citizens, doing relatively well?
A. I don’t know. Is it the sunshine? Ask Dr. Birx.

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