Coronavirus Statistics

                                              

Doris Burke, Virus survivor

I’ve been tracking the coronavirus statistics compiled by The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University for the past two weeks. As of March 29 the CSSE has reported that there are about 678720 known cases worldwide resulting in 31700 deaths so far. About 145000 of those cases have recovered although it would appear that recovery statistics lag behind.

For the past two weeks the number of reported cases has grown between 12 and 13 percent per day. Obviously, as more testing is done the number of cases will continue to increase. A couple of weeks ago, an alarming banner headline in my local newspaper reported that there were 6800 people in Connecticut infected with the virus despite the fact that at the time there were only 68 tested positive in the state.

A medical official with the State of Connecticut explained that although there was no way to estimate the effect of the coronavirus as yet, past experience with the flu would indicate that you must multiply by 100 the number of reported cases to get the true extent of the epidemic. In other words, 68 actual cases mean that at least 6800 people have been infected.

If we use this estimate, it would mean that over 67 Million people worldwide (678000 actual cases multiplied by 100) have already been infected with the virus. That translates into a death rate of .0004, much less than the death rate per actual cases. In other words, out of 1 Million people infected, approximately 470 will die from the corona virus, and most will be elderly with existing respiratory problems. Even if you drop the estimate in half and say that the actual reported cases should be multiplied by 50 rather than 100, the death rate would still be miniscule, and no more serious than it was in other flu seasons.

Worldwide, approximately 4% to 5% of reported cases have resulted in death. In the USA so far, approximately 124600 cases have resulted in 2300 deaths, about 1.8% of the total. The USA death rate compares very favorably with countries like Italy with a death rate of over 10% and the United Kingdom were the death rate is almost 6%. 

A columnist in yesterday's Wall Street Journal referred to two studies with differing approaches to the epidemic. The first called for a continuation of the current measures that amount to an almost complete shutdown of the economy. The other study proposed less draconian measures: seven-day isolation of those with symptoms, 14-day isolation of exposed households, and “dramatically reduced social contact for all those over 70 years of age.” 

My wife and I are both age 80 and although healthy, we have been in virtual quarantine for the past three weeks. I can understand the need since the great majority of people who have died have been elderly.  However, given the statistics cited above I believe that it is time for young people to go back to work, and for children to return to school. 

In today’s newspaper there was a story about a sportscaster for ESPN who was very sick for a couple of days, and decided to get tested. It took eight days to get the test results but sure enough, she tested positive for the coronavirus. Like most healthy people she quickly recovered and is probably able to get back to work. Moreover, it is very likely that she and the other millions who get infected by the virus will be immune from future attacks.

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Coronavirus Antidote

                                               

The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University has been tracking the progress of the coronavirus. Its figures are constantly updated but as of Sunday morning, March 22, the CSSE showed 311918 reported cases worldwide, and 13407 deaths attributed to the virus. The worldwide death rate of reported cases would appear to be about 4% so far.

The chart also indicated that 93790 of total cases had recovered from the virus. It seems that recovery reports must lag behind reports of actual cases. In China the number of cases has levelled off which could be a very hopeful sign unless the Chinese government is underreporting.

Interestingly, most of the reported cases have occurred in the Northern hemisphere. This fact would support those who believe that the coronavirus, like the flu, might be seasonal and tend to vanish with the onset of Spring. On TV the other night a doctor claimed that the warm weather damages the “corona” or crown that gives the microscopic virus its name, and renders it harmless.

I wondered about the doctor’s claim since our body temperature (98.6) is usually considerably higher than outside air temperature. Why wouldn’t the virus die once it enters our bodies? I called my brother, a gifted biologist, and he said the doctor’s assertion was “nonsense”. He argued that the reason why viral outbreaks lessen in the Spring is due to an increase in sunlight as the days get longer. In particular, there is an increase in the ultraviolet light that we are exposed to even when it is cloudy.

There are different kinds of ultraviolet light but UV B works primarily to build up our Vitamin D that usually decreases during the winter. Among other things, Vitamin D strengthens our immune system. Here is his explanation:

Other than the visible light we receive from the Sun, there is Ultraviolet radiation as well. The Sun emits UV A, UV B and UV C. UV C never reaches the Earth as it is absorbed by our atmosphere. UV C can kill bacteria and Viruses and is used in germicidal lamps. The UV A penetrates our skin and is responsible for sun burn. The UV B is the radiation which causes us to make vitamin D; however, only a small amount of UV B actually reaches the Earth.

In the Northeast we get virtually no UV-B during the months of November through February. The amount of UV-B increases in March and reaches a maximum during June, July and August then starts to taper off. This all has to do with the angle of the Sun relative to the Earth. Also, the amount of UV-B varies during the day with the greatest amount received from about 10AM to 2PM. With about 1/3 of the body exposed for about 20 minutes during that time period, 3 or 4 times a week, will cause the production of all the Vitamin D necessary. As with just about anything too much Vitamin D can cause a variety of health problems.

It is true that Vitamin D has always been associated with bone health but it is essential for many other functions in the body especially the immune system. This is why it is advised to eat food or food supplemented with Vit D starting in the Fall through Spring. Fatty fish like Salmon and Mackerel and Tuna, Cod Liver oil, egg yolks contain much Vit D, but most multivitamins contain all the Vitamin D necessary.

There are estimates that upwards of 30% percent of the US population is Vit D deficient which can compromise their immune system during the late Fall and Winter. You may remember when people with Tuberculosis were sent to sanatoriums where they would be exposed to Sunlight as part of their treatment. Most likely their exposure to the Sun at the right time of year and day was providing them with the Vitamin D necessary for recovery.

However, he claims that Senior citizens are especially vulnerable not because their immune systems are weak or compromised but because they are too strong after a long life of fighting off viruses. Restraining their immune systems might prevent the pneumonia that kills most seniors. He wrote,

 I saw a doctor on TV last night, an Oncologist, who has already been using Chloroquin and Z-pak on Corona Patients with great success.  He and I agree that there is no such thing as a weakened immune system with age and, in fact, the problem with an elderly person is a mature immune system (because we have fought many infections during our lifetime) which tends to an overreaction to a viral infection. 

  This overreaction causes what is known as a "cytokine storm" which leads to great inflammation and lungs filling up with fluid which can lead to pneumonia.  The Chloroquin and Z-pak combination tends to reduce the inflammatory response and also destroy the virus.  Dr. Fauci is a scientist who as a true scientist would like to see a controlled experiment to demonstrate that this treatment poses no harm and is effective; however, this could take months.  These are extraordinary times which seem to require extraordinary measures.  Australia, France and South Korea are using similar combinations with success right now. In the meantime, much research has and is being done to develop a vaccine which hopefully will be ready if needed in the Fall.

Finally, he agreed with those who believe that drinking water is just as important as washing hands. Apparently, our immune systems prick holes in the microscopic infected cells, so that water can rush in and destroy them. The life of the cell is indeed incredible. Wouldn’t it be something if sunlight and water turn the tide in the coronavirus war?

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Coronavirus Observations

The other night I saw some people on TV who had been taken ill with the coronavirus. In each case, they had felt sick and ran a fever that subsided in a day or two. They stayed home, rested, and drank lots of fluids. Apparently, the only medication they used was Tylenol. That was it. For normal, healthy people it did not seem as bad as the flu. 

Their experience as well as the fact the great majority of those contacting the virus quickly recover made we wonder if these people would now be immune to the virus in the future. I asked my scientific advisor if permanent immunity would result in the same way that we older people became immune to measles and the mumps when we contacted those diseases in childhood. Here is his response.

99% of those who recover will be immune to it. There are always some other possibilities given individual genetic and immune differences and personal body conditions. You are correct with the mumps analogy having the disease and recovering from it naturally probably affords more resistance than a vaccine against the disease. For a virus whether you get a vaccine or have the actual disease will usually take about 14 days for a person to develop full, lifetime, immunity to it.

Last week, Holman Jenkins, a respected columnist in the Wall Street Journal argued that there are two ways to deal with the Corona virus. We can try to contain it or mitigate it. Containment means trying to prevent the spread of the virus. Mitigation means allowing it to spread but taking steps to deal with those seriously infected.

It seems to me with the travel restrictions, school closings, and cancelling of public events we have tried to contain the spread of the virus. But I wonder if that is the right strategy. If over 90% of our population can become immune naturally with symptoms not much worse than the flu or a common cold, that would be a much better long term solution than trying to vaccinate the entire population. 

Moreover, doctors on TV have pointed out how easy it is to mitigate the effects of the coronavirus. When you develop symptoms, just stay at home, take it easy and drink plenty of fluids. For most people the cure is right within our own bodies. If you run a fever, take something like Tylenol or just wait it out for a day or two. There is no need even to be tested unless you develop acute symptoms. 

Interestingly, in another WSJ op-ed, a columnist claimed that Great Britain has opted for mitigation rather than try to contain the spread of the virus. However, its National Health Service, which has been seriously underfunded for years. would appear to be hard pressed to handle the number of new, serious cases especially in a timely manner.

Of course, we have been told that Senior citizens or those with high risk conditions like diabetes or immune system disorders are particularly vulnerable in the same way that they are to the flu. In the case of Seniors, etc., isolation and vaccination are priorities just as they are in every flu season. Actually, so far this season approximately 16000 deaths have been attributed to the flu, almost three times higher than the 6500 plus attributed to the coronavirus .

Oddly, children seem to be immune to the virus and so I wonder why we are closing schools all over the country. I know that people say the kids can bring it home and infect their grandparents but often they will have to stay home with their grandparents or just go to the mall.

Every year my wife and I get vaccinated against the flu. But experts don’t believe that it is necessary to inoculate the entire population against the flu that so far has claimed far more deaths than the coronavirus. At age 80 my wife and I are both in the high risk category but I think the majority of the population should be able to go back to work or go to school if they just stay home when they are sneezing or coughing. 

Finally, another doctor who appeared on TV claimed that he was more worried about the future than the present. He believed that the current outbreak would peter out with the coming of spring and summer, but that it would return next winter and be even more serious. If that is the case, is it possible that the more people infected now with this relatively mild version of the virus, and become immune, the better it will be in the long term?

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Note: Here is a link to a chart from Johns Hopkins University that tallies worldwide cases of the coronavirus. So far, there have been 169000 confirmed cases, with only 6500 deaths worldwide. 77000 cases have already recovered. Significantly, the rate of infection in China, the source of the virus, appears to have leveled off.

Socialist Ideals and Reality

Senator Sanders: Democratic Socialist

The Socialist ideas of Senator Bernie Sanders have been tested in many laboratories of human experience over the past one hundred years. We have the example of Socialism in Russia that began with the Communist revolution in 1917. We have the example of National Socialism (Nazism) in Germany that led to World War II and the Holocaust. We have the example of Maoism in China during the great purge that murdered over 20 Million people. We have the example of the various Socialist “republics” set up in Eastern Europe after World War II. Practically on our doorstep is the example of Cuba, a model for Sanders, under the dictatorial regime of the Castro brothers.

All of these Socialist experiments began with high-sounding ideals and slogans but all degenerated into police states ruled by a small minority of party bigwigs and their bureaucratic servants. I was reminded of this the other day while viewing a truly great German film, “The Lives of Others.” 

Before the collapse of the Berlin wall, East Germany’s population was closely monitored by the State Secret Police or Stasi.  Only a few citizens above suspicion were permitted to lead private lives. The film revolves around a loyal and favored East German playwright and his beautiful actress girlfriend. When a corrupt government official falls for the actress, an ambitious Stasi policeman is ordered to bug the writer’s apartment to gain incriminating evidence against the rival. It is a good story, extremely well told, and it won an Oscar in 2007 for best foreign film. 

The story plays out against the background of socialism in the German Democratic Republic or GDR with its ruthless and inhumane interrogation tactics, and its constant spying on and surveillance of an incredible number of ordinary people considered to be potential enemies of the Socialist republic.

Democratic Socialist

However, the film makes it clear that it was not just the secret police and their tactics that were at fault. The whole system was corrupt. Socialist idealism easily gave way to corruption and cronyism. Party bosses ruled with an iron hand. They ruled by fear. They struck fear into their immediate underlings, who in turn struck fear into their own subordinates.  There was no real equality. The workers’ paradise had turned into hell. The film claims that the suicide rate in the GDR was so high, that the government, which counted everything else, just stopped publishing suicide statistics.

Although we have so far been spared a Socialist revolution in the USA, many aspects of Socialism have crept in by the back door. I live next to Bridgeport, the most populous city in Connecticut. For years, Bridgeport has been a one-party city. It’s Democrat Party leaders not only control municipal government, but also usually manage to bring out enough votes to play a key role in state elections. 

A few years ago the Democrat politicians managed to bring back into office a former Mayor who had spent time in prison for corruption during his first administration. Almost immediately he cleaned house ostensibly to balance the budget but also to get rid of political enemies and find jobs for his own supporters. Here are a couple of examples. 

The Commissioner of Parks, a long time figure in Democrat politics, was told that his position was being eliminated. One of the Mayor’s aides explained that the job was no longer necessary even though the Commissioner had managed to augment his $125000 salary with $50000 of overtime pay in the previous year. The Commissioner chose to retire and was given a $15000 bonus, and a couple of years of free medical insurance. I suspect that his already generous pension was augmented by the additional overtime pay in his last year. Another official who was forced out  threatened to sue the City in order to regain his position. He did, however, indicate his willingness to settle out of court for a Million dollars. 

How many ordinary people can claim such benefits when their jobs are eliminated? Examples like the above are typical of what is going on throughout the country as politicians and so-called public service employees rack up benefits and pensions that are busting budgets from Connecticut to California. I call this back door Socialism where all are equal, but some are more equal than others. 

Young millennials may choose to ignore the sordid history of old Socialist regimes or the cronyism of local politics, but they might consider their own personal experience with contemporary Socialism. Most recent college graduates do not realize that they experienced socialism while in college. I am not talking about the professors who are overwhelmingly left-wing. 

My grandchildren tell me that the things they hated most while in college were the dorms and the cafeteria food. They couldn't wait to get out of the dorms and away from the cafeteria.  Like most of us, they wanted to live with their friends off campus and eat the kind of food they liked. They certainly did not want administrators telling them where and how to live or what was good for them to eat.

Senator Sanders may claim that there are more benevolent versions of Socialism than the ones he has praised in the past. He claims that he is a "democratic socialist." But in his incessant attacks on corporations that employ most American workers and provide them with benefits unheard of in all of human history, he sounds as rabid as the revolutionaries of old.  We just have to look at the problems in blue states like California and Illinois to make us think that democratic or back door socialism only works for a privileged few.

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