Monday, September 16, 2019

President Trump's Brand of War


President Trump has just parted ways with John Bolton, his National Security Advisor. It is difficult to determine what particular bit of advice led to the rupture. Was it the recent last minute cancellation of the President’s planned Camp David meeting with representatives of the government of Afghanistan, and the Taliban? Perhaps, it was a difference of opinion on the importance of the recent exchange of prisoners (hostages) between Russia and the Ukraine, a development that President Trump praised.

It would seem more likely that the resignation of Bolton was the result of a series of differences that stemmed from a fundamental difference of approach. Bolton was a well-known “hawk” who had even publicly discussed the merits of preventive military strikes against North Korea and Iran before taking his post in the Trump Administration.

President Trump, despite his talk of American greatness and fervent praise of the military, has consistently expressed his willingness to deal and negotiate with America’s perceived enemies. Political commentators on both the left and the right like to characterize him as a madman, a psychotic, or at least mentally unstable. But maybe, he is just crazy like a fox.

The President has consistently advocated economic rather than military confrontation. He has imposed economic sanctions on Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and even Venezuela. Moreover, he has used tariffs as a form of threat to bring enemies, as well as friends to the bargaining table without firing a shot.

Politicians and political commentators can debate the pros and cons of tariffs ad nauseum but there seems to be no doubt that they can be used as a weapon. It certainly seems clear that the autocrats in Russia and China understand. For years the government of China has imposed high tariffs on imported goods to support its own manufacturing capabilities as well as an enormous military build-up. More than a Communist country, China resembles an old-fashioned mercantilist state that seeks power through trade and currency manipulation.

In a letter to the Wall Street Journal, Peter Navarro, President Trump’s chief trade advisor, recently stated that 75000 factories had been closed in the USA under the previous two administrations and relocated abroad. Coincidentally, the paper also featured an op-ed by the President of the company that manufactures Penn tennis balls. He complained that President Trump’s tariffs on imports from China were making a serious impact on his American owned company.

At the recently completed U.S. Tennis Open, Penn’s rival manufacturer, Wilson, was the ball of choice. Although a US company, Penn’s balls are made in China. As a result, they are having difficulty competing with Wilson whose balls are made in Thailand which is so far exempt from the Trump tariffs. Moreover, Wilson, a famous American brand, has just been acquired by a Chinese company, an obvious move to circumvent the tariffs.

The Penn executive complained of unfair competition but he did not bother to explain why his company had built its manufacturing facility in China in the first place. Why, for that matter, did Wilson move its factory to Thailand? Is it so hard to make tennis balls? Obviously, both companies found it profitable to shift their plants overseas due to a combination of high corporate tax rates in America and foreign subsidies during prior administrations.

It seems to me that engaging in economic warfare is far preferable than engaging in outright military action. It would be even better if economic negotiations could be used to lessen tensions throughout the world. We should, for example, have some real collusion with Russia and help it to become a prosperous country after a century of Communist failure.

The Trump administration has forged a new trade-deal with Japan, one of the world’s largest economies. It has re-designed the trade pact with Canada and Mexico, a deal that just awaits approval by the Democrats in the House of Representatives. It has been trying to forge a workable deal with the Chinese. What is so crazy about these efforts?

After President Trump’s inaugural, I believed that time would tell. Remember that some thought he would not last more than a few weeks, and that some even plotted his overthrow. Others felt that the country would go down the drain. Did any of his critics envision a booming economy?

I hoped that people would look at the deeds of the President’s administration and not his words, or past behavior. Now, I realize that I was naïve. I have come to believe that the whole Russia collusion issue was just a smoke screen designed by the President’s opponents to drive any Trump achievements off the headlines. Now that the Mueller investigation has turned up nothing, the opposition has come up with other headline grabbing issues like Insanity, White Supremacy, and even Impeachment.

It has become increasingly clear that the Democrats do not want the President to score any points in office. They will find it hard to ratify the NAFTA replacement. They do not want a trade deal with China even if it might be beneficial to the United States. I suspect that the Democrats would even welcome a recession and stock market collapse as the 2020 election approaches.

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