Russia has been constantly in the
news since the election of Donald Trump in 2016. I would like to make a
comparison with the formidable task that President Trump faces, and the one faced
by Vladimir Putin, the recently re-elected leader of Russia. It has been said
that the job of President of the United States is the most difficult one in the
world, but it seems to me that the Russian Premier’s job is much more
difficult.
You just have to glance at a map
to see that Russia is surrounded by enemies. If Islamic militancy is a great
danger to us, it is a far greater threat to Russia which is bounded on the
south by Iran and Kazakhstan. Even within its borders the large Muslim population,
especially the fiercely independent Chechens, constitutes a constant menace.
American commentators on both the
left and the right like to blame Putin for his involvement in Syria but Putin
has much more to fear from ISIS and other radical Moslem extremists than
America does. These same commentators should ask what business the United
States has in Syria, Iraq, or Afghanistan. Geographically, we are 6000 miles away from
the war-torn scene.
Moreover, while we worry about trade
relations with nearby Canada and Mexico. Russia is bordered by industrial and
military superpowers. To the West the economy of the European Union dwarfs that
of Russia, a third-world economy compared to Germany alone. In addition, the
NATO alliance is a very serious military presence on Russia’s doorstep and
seems to continually seek new members. Of course, the presence of NATO is also
the presence of the United States.
To the East, Russia is bordered by
Mongolia, a Chinese province, and then by China itself, an industrial and
military superpower. The Chinese population and economy far outstrip that of
Russia. In recent years Putin has negotiated deals that have made Russia a
leading supplier of energy to the growing Chinese population and economy. In
this respect, Russia’s relationship with China resembles Canada’s with the USA.
Even though Russia doesn’t border
North Korea, Pyongyang the capitol of North Korea is only 400 miles from the
Russian Pacific port city of Vladivostok. That’s about the same as the distance
from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Who should have more to fear from a North
Korean nuclear weapon, Russia or the USA? I would also guess that the South
Korean economy is further advanced than Russia’s.
We should try to put ourselves in
Putin’s shoes. Twenty-five years ago the collapse of the Soviet Empire was a
tremendous loss both strategically and psychologically. With the fall of the
Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Empire, Russia effectively lost the
Cold War. Former satellite countries like East Germany, Poland, Hungary,
Romania, and the Ukraine fell away into independent states that sought entrance
into the NATO military alliance. Geographically, Russia is still the largest
country in the world, but its population has shrunk to 143 Million. Compare
this figure with China’s 1.3 Billion population or even with the more than 300
Million population of the USA.
When Germany and Japan were
defeated in World War II, we rebuilt those shattered countries and they became
not only two of the world’s great powers but two of our most reliable allies.
When Russia lost the Cold War we could have attempted something similar instead
of seeing it as a threat.
During the Presidential campaign Donald
Trump made some remarks about seeking a new, positive relationship with Russia.
However, since the election a number of reasons has led his administration to
act tough on Russia. Economic sanctions have been imposed, and diplomats have
been expelled in response to some of Putin’s moves. Also, NATO has been flexing
its muscles, and the new 1.3 Trillion USA budget promises an escalation of the arms
race.
I fail to see the value of driving
Putin’s back to the wall, especially since his country has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. Why tempt him to use it over the poisoning of a spy? I
think it would be much more advantageous to take the pressure off Russia both
economically and militarily.
Economically, our objective should
be to help rebuild the Russian economy in the same way that we did for Germany
and Japan after World War II. The United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are
the world’s three leading suppliers of oil and natural gas. Russia’s geographic
position should make it the largest supplier for energy poor Europe. We should
encourage this natural trade relationship and not try to upset it with
sanctions or price manipulation designed to weaken the Russian economy. A
prosperous Russia with a growing middle class is in the best interests of the
United States.
Militarily, we could ease the
pressure on Russia so that such a large percentage of their GNP does not have to
go into military spending. The first step would have to be an agreement that
would guarantee the independence of the Ukraine. If Putin would agree to that,
NATO could agree to pull back its forces from the Ukrainian border.
Actually, I fail to see why we
should not offer NATO membership to Russia itself. After all, it is the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization. Originally, NATO was designed to counter the
military might of the aggressive Communist Soviet Empire. Now that Empire no
longer exists, and Communism is a dead letter. The United States and Europe
would be much better able to deal with the great geo-political problems of the
twenty first century if Russia was an ally and not an enemy.
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