For some reason I have been
following the various Presidential polls for the past few months and would like
to give a little report on the week before election day. It is hard to know
what to make of the polls since they give such varying results and there is
always the suspicion of bias or spin.
I good sampling of the latest polls
can be found every day at the “Real Clear Politics” site. There you will find
the results of six or seven national polls; the results of polls in so-called “toss
up” or “battleground states like Florida and Ohio; and you will also be able to
create your own hypothetical electoral college map.
Over the past months most of the
polls have shown Democrat Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead, but lately
the race tightened up even before the Director of the FBI announced that he
would re-open the Clinton email investigation. Last week the respected IBD/TIPP
poll showed Republican Donald Trump pulling ahead slightly but this week it shows
Clinton up 45-43.
On the other hand, the tracking
poll conducted by the LA Times and the University of Southern California has
always been an outlier. Its methodology is admittedly unique and it has consistently
shown Trump to be doing better than other more well-known polls. It’s Oct. 30
results gave Trump his greatest margin so far, 47% to 43%. That results
contrasts with the latest CNN poll that had Clinton still up by five points.
Some of the most interesting poll
data has been provided by Remington Research in its individual state surveys.
In its Oct 30 Florida poll it shows Trump up by four points in that key state. However,
it also provides surprising demographic data. Although 19% of Republican voters
say they will vote for Clinton, 21% of Democrat voters say they will vote for
Trump. Independents will break 49 to 36 for Trump.
Even more surprising in Florida is
that only 49% of women plan to vote for Clinton while 44% say they support
Trump. Equally surprising is the evidence that 22% of African-Americans and 42%
of Hispanics indicate that they will vote for Trump. It stands to reason that
Clinton would not enjoy the same overwhelming advantage among Black voters as
President Obama did. Also, all Hispanics are not the same. Perhaps Cubans share
Trump’s antipathy to Mexicans.
In Ohio, another key state that
Trump must win, the Remington poll, dated Oct. 30, has Trump up by five points,
48-43. Ohio is very different than Florida but the demographics there are
similar. It appears that Clinton will get 15% of the Republican vote in Ohio
but that Trump will get 18% of the Democrat vote. As in Florida independents
break heavily for Trump, 48% to 37%. In Ohio, Clinton only leads among women by
48% to 44%. The Remington poll shows that Trump should get about 19% of the
African-American vote in Ohio, not much less than in Florida. Trump will only
get about 27% of the Hispanic vote but Hispanics only make up 4% of the voters
there.
Although Clinton’s lead among
women is not as great as you would imagine, women now make up more than 50% of
the people who actually vote. The polls
indicate that Trump’s support is strongest among white middle-aged men. It
would not hurt him in Ohio to point out that Clinton is a longtime Chicago Cub
fan. It would not surprise me to see Trump ads during NFL games this weekend.
It would also be to Trump’s advantage to buy a half hour on national TV and
give a full presentation of his views without media interruption.
Michael Moore, a longtime advocate of left wing causes, thinks that polls can't be trusted and that Trump will win next week. In this brief video he makes his case. Click on the link or see below.
Michael Moore, a longtime advocate of left wing causes, thinks that polls can't be trusted and that Trump will win next week. In this brief video he makes his case. Click on the link or see below.
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Chiara from Italy:
ReplyDeleteInteresting. You really have been keeping up. Of course after an election, does anyone go back to check who had it right? You may want to do that. You certainly have the info.