Monday, October 31, 2016

Presidential Polls 2016


For some reason I have been following the various Presidential polls for the past few months and would like to give a little report on the week before election day. It is hard to know what to make of the polls since they give such varying results and there is always the suspicion of bias or spin.
I good sampling of the latest polls can be found every day at the “Real Clear Politics” site. There you will find the results of six or seven national polls; the results of polls in so-called “toss up” or “battleground states like Florida and Ohio; and you will also be able to create your own hypothetical electoral college map.

Over the past months most of the polls have shown Democrat Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead, but lately the race tightened up even before the Director of the FBI announced that he would re-open the Clinton email investigation. Last week the respected IBD/TIPP poll showed Republican Donald Trump pulling ahead slightly but this week it shows Clinton up 45-43.    
On the other hand, the tracking poll conducted by the LA Times and the University of Southern California has always been an outlier. Its methodology is admittedly unique and it has consistently shown Trump to be doing better than other more well-known polls. It’s Oct. 30 results gave Trump his greatest margin so far, 47% to 43%. That results contrasts with the latest CNN poll that had Clinton still up by five points.

Some of the most interesting poll data has been provided by Remington Research in its individual state surveys. In its Oct 30 Florida poll it shows Trump up by four points in that key state. However, it also provides surprising demographic data. Although 19% of Republican voters say they will vote for Clinton, 21% of Democrat voters say they will vote for Trump. Independents will break 49 to 36 for Trump.

Even more surprising in Florida is that only 49% of women plan to vote for Clinton while 44% say they support Trump. Equally surprising is the evidence that 22% of African-Americans and 42% of Hispanics indicate that they will vote for Trump. It stands to reason that Clinton would not enjoy the same overwhelming advantage among Black voters as President Obama did. Also, all Hispanics are not the same. Perhaps Cubans share Trump’s antipathy to Mexicans.

In Ohio, another key state that Trump must win, the Remington poll, dated Oct. 30, has Trump up by five points, 48-43. Ohio is very different than Florida but the demographics there are similar. It appears that Clinton will get 15% of the Republican vote in Ohio but that Trump will get 18% of the Democrat vote. As in Florida independents break heavily for Trump, 48% to 37%. In Ohio, Clinton only leads among women by 48% to 44%. The Remington poll shows that Trump should get about 19% of the African-American vote in Ohio, not much less than in Florida. Trump will only get about 27% of the Hispanic vote but Hispanics only make up 4% of the voters there.

Although Clinton’s lead among women is not as great as you would imagine, women now make up more than 50% of the people who actually vote.  The polls indicate that Trump’s support is strongest among white middle-aged men. It would not hurt him in Ohio to point out that Clinton is a longtime Chicago Cub fan. It would not surprise me to see Trump ads during NFL games this weekend. It would also be to Trump’s advantage to buy a half hour on national TV and give a full presentation of his views without media interruption.

Michael Moore, a longtime advocate of left wing causes, thinks that polls can't be trusted and that Trump will win next week. In this brief video he makes his case. Click on the link or see below.


1 comment:

  1. Chiara from Italy:

    Interesting. You really have been keeping up. Of course after an election, does anyone go back to check who had it right? You may want to do that. You certainly have the info.