Too Darn Hot

  

                                     

 

The country is in the midst of a heat wave, and inevitably headlines are making dire claims about global warming and quoting politicians calling for emergency action. It is totally unreasonable and unscientific to confuse or equate weather and climate. Changes in weather occur routinely every year and range from summertime heat to freezing in winter. It is perfectly normal for temperatures to climb into the 90s during the summer. It is not a sign of global warming. It takes centuries to really notice changes in climate.

Since the mid-nineteenth century, temperatures have been tracked in New York City’s Central Park. Here, for example, is a list of the highest temperatures recorded at the start of each decade since the beginning of the last century

2021—98 degrees

2011—104 degrees 

2001—103 degrees

1991—102 degrees

1981—96 degrees

1971—96 degrees

1961—97 degrees

1951—94 degrees

1941—98 degrees

1931—99 degrees

1921—96 degrees

1911—100 degrees

1901—100 degrees.

The highest temperature recorded was on July 9, 1936. The thermometer hit 106 degrees that day. I know that the figures above are just a statistical snapshot, but they do illustrate that it is supposed to be hot in the summertime. Looking at the figures, the only real difference over the past 100 years is that we have done something about the weather. Air-conditioning, one of the greatest inventions of the twentieth century, has revolutionized life in this country.

Our homes, offices, factories, shopping centers, theaters, arenas, and churches are  comfortably air-conditioned. Actually, without air-conditioning our modern way of life would be unthinkable. We owe it all to fossil fuels which have provided the electricity that powers every air-conditioning unit. I am old enough to know what it was like to live without air-conditioning and it was not nice. I still think of my poor mother who gave birth to me in July. 

Anyway, weather is not climate. As noted above, weather goes through normal annual cycles, but climate cycles can take centuries to detect. Recently, studies have claimed  that the global temperature has increased by 1.1 degree Celsius since the nineteenth century, and that the increase is due to human activity in the industrial age. I can imagine that today scientists using modern technology can measure global temperatures, but I do not understand how they can come up with global figures from over 100 years ago. 

Moreover, modern climate studies admit that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to factor in the effect of volcanic or solar activity in calculations of global temperature. Some believe that solar activity like sunspots is a significant factor in climate change. After all, the sun is our furnace. 

But let’s assume that the studies are correct, and that global temperature has increased by 1.1 degree Celsius since the nineteenth century. Rather than disaster, it has coincided with the greatest period of human development and prosperity in history. Although headlines carry stories of heat related deaths during the current heat wave, deaths from heat have decreased dramatically over the past century. Deaths related to cold are five times greater. Starvation and malnutrition as a cause of death has also reached all-time lows in the past century even considering the well-known man-made starvation efforts in Communist dominated countries. 

So even if the global climate is changing it might not be such a bad thing. Our planet has been around for over 4 billion years. It has gone through every imaginable catastrophe during that time. It revolves around a large star 93 million miles away which is itself located on the periphery of a huge galaxy which is moving rapidly through the universe. During my lifetime, this planet has probably carried me millions of miles away from where it was in 1939. 

Human beings  have been around less than 50000 years on this planet. We certainly have the ability to make our lives better or worse but to think we can save Planet Earth seems to me the height of arrogance. In 1933 composer Irving Berlin wrote the song “Heat Wave.” In 1958 composer Cole Porter wrote “Too Darn Hot” for his hit musical “Kiss Me Kate.” Both songs referred to wickedly hot weather like we are experiencing today. Since these songs were written, human ingenuity used air conditioning to do something about the weather. But I suspect that our efforts to deal with climate change will do little good and potentially much harm to life on our planet.

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Asset Inequality

  

As the Presidential race heats up I think it might be good to avoid personalities and discuss some of the issues that voters should consider. Here is part of a post I put up three years ago that still seems relevant today. ...................................

The income inequality bemoaned by progressives in this country is a myth. Statistical studies that demonstrate an increasing amount of income inequality apparently leave out over a trillion dollars of government income transfers to those in lower income brackets. These studies also do not take into consideration the substantial impact of an effective progressive income tax code on the highest earners.  

Three years ago in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Bruce D. Meyer, a professor of public policy at the University of Chicago, and James X. Sullivan, a professor of economics at Notre Dame, claimed that “there is much less material deprivation than there was decades ago.” They cited a number of studies including the American Housing Survey that demonstrated the significant strides made in this country. They wrote,

"The poorest 20% of Americans live as the middle class did a generation ago as measured by the square footage of their homes, the number of rooms per person, and the presence of air conditioning, dishwashers, and other amenities."

Unfortunately, studies that claim that America has reached an unprecedented level of income equality are questioned by politicians and advocates on both extremes of the political spectrum. Right wingers claim that the enormous sums spent by government social programs or income transfers have largely been wasteful and ineffective. Left wingers claim that they have not gone far enough and continue to call for massive spending to finance free college education, health care, minimum wage increases and a host of other benefits. 

Left wing progressives also claim that studies that demonstrate rising income equality are a politically biased attempt to roll back or eliminate the social service safety net. As a last resort, even if they grudgingly admit some measure of income equality, progressives will then raise the issue of “asset” inequality. Even if the incomes of the poor are improving, the gap in asset ownership is greater than ever before in history and getting wider and wider.

I know that there are incredibly wealthy people in the country today. Jeff Bezos of Amazon is reputed to be the wealthiest person in the world with a fortune of $157 Billion in 2018. But my own experience leads me to believe that the gap between the very rich in this country and the rest of us is no wider than it has ever been, and that more Americans share in the benefits of the American economy than ever before.

When I started my career in the financial services industry as a mutual fund salesman in 1972, it quickly became clear to me that most Americans did not own a share in the American economy. The mutual fund business was in its infancy, and only a small percentage of the population owned shares of common stock. Moreover, there were no IRA or 401k plans with tax favored treatment of retirement savings. Many leading companies had pension plans but there was little in the way of profit sharing plans or employee stock ownership plans. There were, however, two tax-favored retirement accounts but they were only available to small businesses (Keogh plans), and school teachers (403b plans). The 403b plan was the granddaddy of these plans and it is still used to fund the retirement of most college and university professors today. 

In the past 50 years the growth of all of these plans has been phenomenal. More Americans now own tax favored retirement plans than ever before and most of them are invested in a broad cross section of the American economy. In addition to the tax advantages, most people could participate in these plans through payroll deduction, the best way to save. Incredibly, the huge amounts that Americans put into these tax favored retirement plans do not count in official government statistics as savings.

When I started in 1972 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was about 1000. Today it is over 34000. The baby boomers who began saving in the 1970s have become the richest generation in history. On a recent visit to Alameda California, across from San Francisco Bay, I discovered that even modest homes there could not be had for less than $1 Million largely due to its proximity to trendy San Francisco. Although San Francisco is the bluest city in the bluest state in the country, most ordinary people cannot afford to live there.

Closer to home, my wife and I enjoy sitting at the marina near Fairfield beach and watching the boats, both large and small, go in and out. It is a constant parade. Fairfield is a middle class town but a good number of its people enjoy messing around in boats, and can afford to do so. 

But what about the lower classes? Although people living on welfare have very few assets, their guaranteed welfare income and benefits makes them virtual millionaires. For example, if someone receives a monthly welfare check, subsidized medical care under Medicaid, and housing and food assistance, they could easily have the equivalent of an income of $2500 per month or $30000 per year. At 3% interest it takes a million dollars of assets to provide an income of $30000 per year. Moreover, any assistance that poorer Americans get ultimately comes from the income and profits made by other Americans.

Despite protests from both the left and the right, it would appear that the social safety net is working in America. Other countries have emigration problems but America has an immigration problem. Despite all of its so-called flaws, people still want to come here. Isn't it incredible that thousands of refugees from Somalia have been able to settle in Minneapolis in the past few decades? It is even more incredible that one of them has been elected to Congress where all she does is complain about her adopted country.

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More Film Noir 2024

 

In the past few years, I have become a big fan of a certain kind of American film from the 1940s and 50s. They are primarily black and white dark crime dramas that French film makers and critics called “film-noir” when they rediscovered American films after the liberation of France in 1945. The term film-noir refers not only to the dark themes of these movies but also to the nighttime settings and the often-startling contrasts between light and dark, black and white. In my opinion, film-noir represents a short-lived American film renaissance that came to an end with the advent of television and technicolor. 

Below find brief descriptions of some of these films that I have viewed this year. Not only are they gripping, well-told stories with masterful directing and acting, but also, they bring me back to the days of my childhood. In the background I can see a world that is no more: the dark dingy streets, the small apartments, the old telephones that people always answer, and the incessant cigarette smoking. I imagine my parents sitting in crowded theaters, and I wonder what they thought as they watched these films play out on the big screen.

 

Bogart and Bacall

The Big Sleep.  Humphrey Bogart and Lauren Bacall star in this 1946 adaptation of Raymond Chandler’s crime novel. Bogart plays Chandler’s legendary private eye Philip Marlowe on the trail of killers, pornographers, gamblers, and a bevy of beautiful young women. In this film and in the earlier Maltese Falcon Bogart created the private eye. No one else ever came close. This was the second film pairing of Bogie and Bacall and director Howard Hawks really brought out the chemistry between the famous couple.The plot is convoluted but the writing is superb. 114 minutes. CC.

Call Northside 777. James Stewart stars in this 1948 film as a Chicago newspaperman who reluctantly investigates the case of a convict who has already spent ten years in prison for the murder of a policeman. The convict, played by Richard Conte, is the son of Polish immigrants. His widowed mother has spent years scrubbing floors to raise money for a reward for information that might help free her son. Some superb character actors also appear in this very naturalistic film that was based on a true story. 111 minutes. CC.

Whirlpool. Gene Tierney, one of Hollywood’s most beautiful actresses ever, stars in this 1949 story of a woman secretly suffering from kleptomania who turns to a hypnotist to cure her condition. Soon afterwards she is found at the scene of a murder with no memory of how she got there and no way to prove her innocence. Richard Conte and Jose Ferrer co-star. In the same year Ferrer won the Best Actor award for his performance in Cyrano de Bergerac. 98 minutes. CC.

The Set Up. Robert Ryan and Audrey Totter star in this 1949 film about the dark underside of boxing. Robert Wise, who later would make West Side Story and The Sound of Music, directed this realistic, gritty drama about a washed-up fighter hoping for one last win. The fighter’s story plays out against a background of  a low-down section of a city ironically named Paradise City, crooked fight promoters, and a vicious blood thirsty fight crowd. Film critic Eddie Muller of Turner Classic Movie fame regards The Set Up as the best boxing film ever. 79 minutes. CC.

They Live by Night. Farley Granger and Kathy O’Donnell star in this 1949 film of young lovers mixed up with a gang of criminals. This film is regarded by many as the forerunner to Bonnie and Clyde. Two young lovers meet and fall in love, but circumstances force them into a life of crime. Inevitably, our hearts go out to them right until the tragic ending. This film marked Nicholas Ray’s directorial debut, and the opening scene shot from a helicopter was a film innovation. 95 minutes. CC.

Peggy Cummins

Gun Crazy.  Peggy Cummins and John Dall star in this 1950 story of two star-crossed lovers who meet in a carnival shooting contest and immediately go together like guns and ammunition. The two become bank robbers on the run who roar into movie history in a bench-mark film noir thriller. Just as in They Live by Night our hearts go out to the young couple, but things go from bad to worse. In this one film British actress Peggy Cummins became one of the top femme fatales in film history. 87 minutes. CC. 

The Brothers Rico. Richard Conte stars in this 1957 film as a successful businessman who has managed to escape his past as an accountant with the mob until his former boss calls him back to find his two younger brothers who are on the lam from both the police and the mob. Based on a story by famed Belgian crime novelist George Simenon. Anyone not familiar with Simenon’s crime novels, especially his police stories featuring Parisian Police Inspector Maigret, can look forward to years of enjoyable reading. 92 minutes. CC.

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Trump Trial

 

I will hold off on any comments on the recent conviction of ex-President Donald Trump in a New York city court until the matter winds its way through the appeal process. In the meantime, I would just like to comment on the hatred of Trump that lay behind the proceedings. Half the people in this country dislike Trump, and many of those despise, even hate him. What is the cause of this hatred?

 

When I ask people why they dislike Trump, they rarely mention his performance as President from 2016-2020. True, they point to his behavior on January 6, 2021, but their animus preceded that event. Moreover, they rarely mention his policies, foreign or domestic. Some object to his insulting remarks about his opponents. They just wish he would tone down the rhetoric.

 

I did a search for Trump’s insults and found that the New York Times had compiled an exhaustive list of insults hurled by Trump at various people and institutions from 2015 to 2021.The list is in alphabetical order based on the name of the recipient of Trump’s invective. I only went through the A,B,Cs which I found contained a good sample especially since it included Trump’s opponents in the past two elections. Here is a selection from the Times list.

 

ABC. Fake News. (ABC was first on the list but most media were called fake news)

 

Stacey Abrams. Will destroy the State etc.

 

Jim Acosta. A fake reporter

 

Anderson Cooper. A waste.

 

Bashar al Assad. A gas killing animal who kills his people.

 

Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Has embarrassed all by making very dumb political statements…her mind is shot.

 

Steve Bannon. Sloppy Steve.

 

Paul Begala. Dopey

 

Jeff Bezos. Jeff Bozo

 

Joe Biden. Sleepy Joe etc. (the Biden file is almost a page of small print)

 

Hunter Biden. Crooked as can be.

 

Michael Bloomberg. Mini Mike

 

John Bolton. A warmongering fool.

 

Jeb Bush. Jeb low energy Bush

 

Pete Buttigieg. Alfred E. Newman.

 

James Clapper. Dirty Cop…proven liar.

 

Hillary Clinton. Crooked Hillary etc. (her file is as long as Biden’s)

 

Michael Cohen. Bad lawyer and fraudster.

 

Anne Coulter. Wacky nut job

 

Chris Cuomo. Fredo

 

It seems pretty mild to me except for the charge leveled against Bashar al Assad, the Syrian dictator, who has in fact used poison gas on his own people. Today, after the various hoaxes promoted by the media in the last eight years, “fake news” seems like a matter of fact and not an insult. I found no foul language on the list. Certainly, nothing close to the insulting language hurled against Trump by his opponents. He is often called a Nazi and compared to Hitler. Remember that Maxine Waters, a Congresswoman from California, called him a mother f---er. He did say that Stacey Abrams would destroy the State of Georgia, but recently, outside the NYC courthouse, actor Robert DeNiro claimed that Trump would destroy the Country and the World.

 

No, it is more than insults or rhetoric. For half the country, Donald Trump is the epitome of the big, bad businessman that has been part of American lore from the beginning, especially from the time of the nineteenth century Robber Barons to the present. From Colombo to Law and Order the killer has always been a successful white businessman or professional.

 

From the time he came down the escalator in Trump Tower to declare his candidacy, Trump was the successful white businessman par excellence. Moreover, he showed no guilt about his riches. He had inherited wealth but then increased it immensely. He flaunted his wealth. He lived in Trump Tower and Mar a Lago amid furnishings of gold. He loved to play golf and had a reputation as a womanizer. He married a beautiful young wife after dumping two previous wives. He had a good education but still seemed boorish and uncultured. Most of all, he was not the “not for profit” type. He always watched out for Number 1.

 

Think about it. The last three Democratic Presidents never had to be in business. They never had to run a profit or worry about taking a loss. Bill Clinton and his wife Hillary were lawyer politicians, Barack Obama was a community activist before his election to the Senate from Illinois, and Joe Biden has been in government forever. They were all public servants who made millions, but somehow escaped the opprobrium of being rich.

 

Many years ago I was a young teacher at a newly founded small college in Connecticut. Like me, most of the faculty were liberal arts teachers just out of grad school. For some reason, we all looked down our noses at businessmen even though most of us had little real contact with people in business. We thought they were ill-educated and uncultured, and it seemed especially unfair that they should make much more money than we did. We even looked down upon the school’s fledgling Business department as a kind of necessary evil. I suspect that such anti profit prejudice still prevails today in most colleges and universities despite the fact that most of them now turn out hordes of business majors.

 

As one letter writer in the Wall Street Journal pointed out this week,Trump was prosecuted not because of anything he said or did, but simply because he was Donald J. Trump.

 

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