Sunday, August 19, 2012

Romney prediction

The other day a friend asked me who I thought would win the upcoming Presidential election. He was shocked when I replied that I thought that Mitt Romney would win in a landslide. My guess was based on my gut feeling as well as on a recent poll in Connecticut, a traditional very blue state. The poll showed that President Obama had only an eight-percentage point lead in a state he carried by twenty-three percentage points in 2008. If Obama’s showing is so poor in usually reliable Connecticut, how will he win in the toss up states so vital to victory in November?

I believe that the poll numbers are not only a recognition of Obama’s record but also an indication that the Republicans now have an extremely attractive candidate whose apparent negatives will be perceived by most people as positives.

The 2008 election showed that American politics have entered the age of American Idol. Incredibly in the Democratic primaries a totally inexperienced but extremely attractive candidate triumphed over Hillary Clinton and the established leaders of the Democrat party. In the ensuing election Barack Obama easily overwhelmed an aging John McCain.

However, in Mitt Romney the Republicans have found an attractive candidate of their own to put up against a floundering Administration that seems totally unable to understand or deal with the country’s economic woes. I must admit that I am a political conservative and that I do like Mitt Romney but here are a list of qualities that I think any observer would agree with.

1. Romney has an attractive appearance. He appears youthful and energetic both in person and on TV. His wife and family are equally attractive. Again, in the age of American Idol this quality cannot be underestimated. Obama has no advantage here.

2. At the same time Romney appears to be intelligent, experienced, and quite capable of handling the demands of the Presidency. It would appear that he has been successful in practically everything he has set his hand to. Never mind the Olympics, he managed to get elected as a Republican governor of one of the bluest states in the country. Even the critics of his career at Bain Capitol would have to admit that he was successful there.

3. No one can doubt that he showed great skill he winning one of the most grueling primary campaigns in memory. Those who question his campaign strategy and tactics should give him credit for knowing what he is doing. He is no dope. His selection of Paul Ryan as running mate was a masterstroke. Despite their immediate criticism of Ryan, some Democrats are so concerned that I believe there will be an attempt to replace bumbling Vice-President Biden with Hillary Clinton. Moreover, the Romney campaign is and will be extremely well funded unlike the McCain disaster. Obama will not have the overwhelming financial advantage he had in 2008.

4. Speaking of money Romney is wealthy and makes no bones about it. Independent voters are wise enough to understand that a rich person has a great incentive to protect the rights of private property so basic to our country’s health and freedom. They also know that many Democrat politicians are equally wealthy. If the election is about class warfare and divisiveness, the Democrats will lose.

5. I don’t think his religion will be a factor. I know very little about the beliefs of Mormons, but I once overheard a man say that he never met a Mormon he didn’t like. He seems to be a devoted family man. Again, Obama has no advantage here.

I like to comment on what’s going on and don’t usually like to make predictions but I will go out on a limb here. Barring some unforeseen circumstance, I believe that Mitt Romney will win in a landslide big enough to give him a mandate to get the country moving again in the right direction. ###

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